egypt: dictator out, junta in. celebrations and congrats too early

hosni mubarak egypt's dictator was ousted yesterday, after 30+ years of brutal corrupt oppression and 17 days of protests, strikes, riots, looting, prison breakouts, lynchings, etc., etc..

a military junta of his closest cronies (with equally brutal and corrupt personal histories) have taken power in place of their master with vague promises to bring in democracy some time in the future.

herd, around the word (including a few idiots in sri lanka), are celebrating and offering congrats to egyptians.

!?

too early imo.
democracy is yet to dawn in egypt. i will keep my congratulations and celebrations till then. anybody with a brain should.
remember all those 'color revolutions' in recent past from ukraine to georgia to lebanon. hardly harbingers of democracy. egypt is likely, imo, to fare even worse.

america's impotent involvement
over the years united states of america gave more aid to mubarak's brutal regime than to any other country except isreal. it turned a blind eye to repression of opponents of that regime and even used the regime to do its dirty work by sending (/'rendering') terror suspects to egypt so they can be tortured without legal obstacles prevailing in american territory.

when protests started, obama administration in usa (and its poodles in west) which support many such regimes and directly commits and oversees even worse brutalities in iraq, afganistan etc., assumed its usual hypocritical stance as champion of democracy and human rights, and called for reforms but stopped short of calling for mubarak's resignation. but as days went on, usa became aware of his and its own impotence. to cut its losses obama administration seems to have decided to dump mubarak and try its luck with a friendly military junta. (cia chief got ahead of himself when he announced mubarak's departure on thursday).

btw it is indicative of so called super power's over stretch and ever increasing weakness that it is now always responding to events and has lost its ability to control them in favor of its allies as in the past.

[mainstream western media's coverage of protests with deliberate blind spots (disgusting anti jewish sentiments of protesters, role of widespread anti christian riots in late december and early january, etc.) and exaggerations (role of social media) deserve another post. ]

what next?
whether a junta consisting of mubarak's (and west's ) cronies can maintain power is an open question. only the events will show.

in any case, imo, there are two likely outcomes, and both does not involve a functioning democracy of even imperfect western (usa, eurape, etc.,) or asian (south korea, taiwan, japan, malaysia, india, and of course sri lanka, ) models.

outcome will be determined by how, now legitimized, protests are handled in the future (as in next year or two) by those in power in egypt.

there will be more protests. double digit unemployment and inflation ensured the high public participation of protests. those causes are not going to disappear; disruptions from protests (and this year's freak weather around the world) will make them worse.

possibility 1
junta or some of its members successfully maintain power creating a mubarak lite regime, compliant to west and paying only lip service to aspirations of egyptians. this would involve cracking down on protests at some point. tunisia, which also ousted its dictator, seems to be going this way; newly installed pro western president was given emergency powers, a story buried by mainstream western media.

result, no democracy.

possibility 2
junta fails in face of future protests and soldiers unwillingness to crack down. an unstable government made of weak out of touch pro western 'liberals' (eg elbaradei) will be installed. islamists (led by grandfather of all islamic fundamentalist parties, muslim brotherhood) will support this temporarily to get rid of junta. once that has been achieved, muslim brotherhood, which is the most organized and experienced political entity apart from government and has maintained itself in opposition to a repressive regime, will take control.

don't believe this scenario? well you better read history. that is exactly what happens in revolutions. barring a counter revolution (led by elements of old regime) most extreme and organized party among revolutionaries always gain control. perfect example,1917 revolutions in russia. (coincidentally first one took place in february there too, we know what happened by october).

a country under the muslim brotherhood is not going to be democratic.


interesting times
'may you live in interesting times', goes an (alleged) old chinese curse.
today the worldwide herd is unwittingly celebrating the dawn of interesting times for the egyptians.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

four peacenik criminals quit human rights panel, good riddance!

it seems four prominent terrorist parroting peaceniks sunila abeysekera, nimalka fernando, rohan edirisinha and paikiasothy saravanamuttu, have quit a ten member human rights panel bc "their advice was not taken seriously".
these ppl who,

• believe in the racist notion that ltte terrorists are fighting for tamils/tamils support terrorists,
• believe that peace is worth any cost (even the cost of democracy, justice, human rights and freedom ),
• and are willing to perpetuate the culture of impunity here by allowing convicted mass murderers and their cronies more political power( in the process accusing thousands of men and women in the sri lankan armed forces with horrible crimes based on nothing but terrorist propaganda)

had no business in a human rights panel in the first place.

their advice if followed will only lead to more human rights violations not less, as their actions so far have indicated. in fact their actions convict them of being willing apologists for convicted gross violators of human rights of sri lanka.

• these terrorist arse-lickers or their connected ngos, willingly accepted the terrorist claim to be sole representative of tamils (a claim which violates human rights of tamils especially).
• they stayed quiet or supported the government while it failed to protect rights of sri lankans which were violated again and again by the terrorists during so called ceasefire.
  
• they stayed quiet when military was attacked almost daily from december'05 to april'06 unprovoked and without retaliation.
• they stayed quiet and failed to stand up for human rights while civilians as well as military were attacked and killed, and war crimes like holding water hostage were committed.
• they opposed and lobbied against naming of ltte as terrorists organization by eu and other countries.
• several of them collaborated in an attempt to inflate a small riot in trinco into another '83 (in the process plagiarizing a report by terrorist propaganda sourced dbs jeyaraj, as a result of a non existant fact finding mission to trinco.)
• they suddenly and predictably became active when military acted after mavil aru and tried (among numerous other such perfidious actions) to make the terrorist ltte's temporary capture and attempted ethnic cleansing of muttur permanent by calling to "stop the siege" at that moment (in fact on the same day that 17 acf workers were killed in muttur).
• they and their cronies clamored to have terrorist front tro accepted as a member of umbrella ngo organizations to provide it with cover.
• they continually make false accusations against whole of sri lankans armed forces based on either absurd white van conspiracy theories dreamed up by pussy spin office or actions of a criminal few ( who when there is evidence has been arrested), in an effort create a moral equalization between armed forces of a democracy and a bunch of criminal thugs.
• they traitorously lobby for foreign intervention in sri lanka thus violating political rights of participants of sri lankan democracy through foreign coercion.
• they always complain of censorship, when in fact a look at a newsstand full of all sorts of opinions( including terrorists' own), accusations, and mud-throwings, by all sides of the political spectrum, will convince anyone not so blinkered that there isn't and wasn't any censorship(except for a temporary blocking of tamilnet ). on the other hand their own cronies censor anyone who disagrees from places they have under their control .
  
• ...
  

I can go on and on.

after all that these criminals presume to speak for human rights and want their advice followed ? lol (yes only reaction to that can be laughter at them).

anyway thank god they have finally quit. (even tough they will continue with their criminal mischief elsewhere.)

෴

what if peacenik fantasy of u.n. intervention becomes true? more violence?

yes!

peaceniks, parroting terrorists pussies as usual, have been and are lobbying for foreign intervention ( with an un monitoring team as the tip of the wedge). however imo( indeed as i have been saying for sometime) their chances of success are very limited.

unlike corrupt or idiotic ( its either one or the other) peaceniks , decision makers that matter in foreign countries can see the clear difference between closed terrorist ltte and open democratically elected sri lankan government even if they don't like gosl for other reasons.

to anyone who evaluates the situation here from a pragmatic point of view as well as moral point of view, without prejudices (esp. racist ones like, "ltte is fighting for tamils", "tamils support terrorists"- positions all peaceniks adopt and when questioned try to avoid commenting on - ask them and see how they run from them ) there shouldn't be any doubt. foreign government who want to do 'the right thing' or act in their own own (rather limited as far as sl in concerned) interests, or both, will either support gosl, or stay out, or support gosl and pretend to stay out ( as is the case with indian one due domestic politics there).

but peacniks will day dream on and continue to live in their fantasy world.

all that is rather old, but here is something new. (for those who want to think about these things just in case.)

if this daydream ever comes true and foreigners coerce the gosl to accept a foreign intervention disregarding the democratic rights and will of sri lankans, or failing that engage in further acts of coercion such as sanctions to make gosl submit, resistance to that both passive and active (even violent), on the part of all sri lankans whether individually or collectively, is completely justified. and imo that resistance (even violent ones) should also justifiably target those who advocated and then in all probability will also collaborate with that intervention and coercion.

i will write on that in more detail later when i have the time. after all there is no hurry. bc imo this intervention is just another unrealistic daydream of the peaceniks. and everyone is free to day dream and even lobby . this argument will really matter only if it become reality.

෴

imperial delusions, aid, and reality

it seems politicians everywhere are prone delusions about their own power. one such example was on display in uk's house of commons on 2nd of may, when they debated about the situation in sri lanka.

in actual fact british empire has long gone and the ability of uk to interfere in sri lanka is very limited. we are not as poor or dependent on aid as some people here and there believe. while we sri lankans may give in on small things due to such allegedly attempted arm twistings (see below for actual situation) we will not give in on bigger things come what may. failure to recognize this difference means that any such attempt may backfire on them and their sri lankan supporters badly.

nor is it in uk's interest to see sri lankan government's position vis-à-vis ltte terrorists deteriorate, from both moral as well as real politick point of view. do they really want to see the power of ltte, the teacher of many terrorist groups grow unhindered? imo no. their actual actions in the form of continuing the ban on ltte and in recent crackdowns on their money collection activities and scams (as in other countries) clearly collaborate that opinion.

while some sri lankan peaceniks, following their masters the pussies, clearly want foreign intervention, nobody with any real sense anywhere is going to mistake ltte tigers for ragtag darfur rebels. nobody wishing to go anywhere in any field is going be caught dead publicly supporting ltte and its suicide bombers whatever they may think of sri lankan government

however with some labour mps depending on the support of tamil constituents they want to be seen as working to bring about a solution to sri lankan conflict. hence the meaningless sops offered on may 2nd

the debate
there has been all sorts of reports on this. you may read the (rather long) debate here straight from the hansard. the amount of ignorance displayed by british mps was astonishing, but perhaps typical of politicians everywhere. when they quoted bbc to back up their arguments you know they were not going to get to truth. most of the speakers were mps with tamil constituents and. with ltte terrorist lobby working full time their position and motivation was all too clear. primarily they wanted to lift the ban on ltte in uk and to create a moral equality between ltte and sri lankan government. other mps (mainly from the conservative party) pointed out the adverse implications of giving into ltte demands and the fact that ltte continues to engage in terrorist acts.

uk government ministers were clearly not in favor of lifting the ban on ltte or as the minister for the middle east, dr. kim howells characterized it 'suicide bombers, murderers, torturers and rapists'. though with predictable lack of principle, they still want gosl to talk to the ltte and to fully implement the already discredited cfa. however uk government is well aware that if gosl refuse to do that options available to uk government are very limited ( unless uk wants to be termed a terrorist supporting state which they clearly do not want).

old news recycled
this impotence was clearly demonstrated when uk government went so far as to say that it is withholding part of a debt relief package ( worth 41 million pounds over 10 years or about £4 million a year) to sri lanka until discussions between sri lankan and uk governments about certain conditions( relating to 'human rights, hostilities, defense spending and accountability') attached to the package is finished. however this decision was not something new, this was made known in february of this year. after some sri lankan papers reported on this, british high commission in sri lanka clarified this in a press release dated 18 february, basically saying the same thing that uk government said on 2nd may.

truth about foreign aid
to put this in perspective, sri lanka receives over $500 million in foreign aid (in actual fact loans) annually. british aid is comparatively very small. the package referred is the main component of british bilateral aid to sri lanka, even it was due mainly because of tsunami. normally uk gives next to nothing.

in recent years sri lanka has successfully resisted the attachment of conditions to aid. political conditions (as opposed to economic ones) as quite unheard of. this particular package signed in 2005 is mainly the result of aftermath of tsunami when the sl government probably took its guard down.

in any case the main problem with foreign aid to sri lanka has always been their non utilization due to sri lankan red tape and sheer inability to get going on projects. only around 15-25% of the aid pledged annually is actually used, though recent sri lankan governments have allegedly tried hard to increase that percentage.

in light of all these factors the debate and the announcement about aid on may 2nd can not have much of a real impact on sri lanka. they are essentially sops for the benefit of labour mps with tamil constituents who may be influenced by ltte.

in so far as that goes let them have their delusional debates in order to mislead their tamil constituents if they want to.

real interference
while debate and the non news about aid may not have any real impact, the 'all-party tamil group' (sic) formed by some british mps chaired by keith vaz (labour mp for leicester, east) may try to interfere in sri lanka for real. according to him they want to visit north and east and to invite terrorists' chief negotiator tamil chelvam (aka toothy pussy) to address them. while their actions are unlikely to change the uk policy towards sri lanka, they can be used by the ltte as a propaganda tool

government of sri lanka must make it clear that british mps do not have power here. only people who should have power here are sri lankan public and their democratically elected representatives. and as i said before they will not give up certain bigger things even if they give up small things in the face of alleged attempts at control

some sri lankans (sort of parasitic individuals who did not find anything objectionable in amnesty internationals' disgusting campaign against sri lankan cricket) to whom all things foreign (esp if white skinned foreign) are literally god given, will no doubt object to that. however sri lanka is not an oligarchy run by english speaking pseudo elite whiners. this is a functioning democracy. as such it would reflect public's view on such interference

pro-actively turning the propaganda on its head
all that does not mean gosl should reject the british mps out of hand. instead sri lankan government should if possible try to turn this attempted ltte propaganda effort on its head.

sri lankan government should demand that if mps are allowed to visit, they should agree to be covered fully and transparently by all media even in ltte controlled areas, and that mps and media have free access to ordinary people there. gosl should demand that representatives of non ltte parties (tamils as well as non tamils) be given equal opportunity to make their case if ltte representatives are given a hearing here or in britain.

sri lankan government's aim should be to bring out the reasons why terrorist ltte should not be part of any power sharing solution as long as it remains armed and uses its current methods. it should point out why ltte cannot be considered a representative of tamils in sri lanka. ltte claim to be such rests solely on oppression of tamils and physical elimination of any alternative democratic tamil leadership. after all if anyone is really concerned about human rights in sri lanka they would not have any option but to support the defeat of ltte. gosl should also point to the clear double standards exhibited by the british mps if they engage is any sort of moralizing on behalf of ltte.

above all sri lanka should confront them with ltte atrocities and methods in all their documented and grisly details. if they are here on good faith they would realize the truth if they are not they will be exposed for what they are.

it is only by aggressive pro-active engagement that hypocrites like keith vaz and his ilk can be exposed and discredited. going on the defensive won't work here, anymore than in the battlefield.

෴

update

here (1, 2) are details from uk parliament's committee on standards and privileges about corrupt dealings of keith vaz mp referred above. clearly he is uk's answer to mervyn silva. curious how peaceniks and terrorists appeasers always prefer such people. remember how mervyn silva and all the leading sri lankan peaceniks organized a pro appeasement protest march and rally that ended in fisticuffs? on the other hand it is not all that surprising. corrupt people probably like to hang around each other.