in spite of trying through his puppet sirisena to destabilize opposing major party, slfp led upfa, by removing general secretaries and central committee members in the final days of election. ranil's unp utterly failed to secure a simple majority.
it got only 105 seats, and a majority needs 113.
even in that 105, its not all unp. it includes hela urumaya, slfp breakaways loyal to chandrika, slmc and breakaways members, various cwc elements, and few other parties. they may get 1 slmc mp elected independently, and perhaps devananda from epdp. but all these small groups will demand their share of loot. since their primary motive for getting together was to oppose mahinda, some of what they what contradict each other.
even in that 105, its not all unp. it includes hela urumaya, slfp breakaways loyal to chandrika, slmc and breakaways members, various cwc elements, and few other parties. they may get 1 slmc mp elected independently, and perhaps devananda from epdp. but all these small groups will demand their share of loot. since their primary motive for getting together was to oppose mahinda, some of what they what contradict each other.
he would be tempted by tamil racists of tna, but will explode himself if he gives into any of their demands.
no doubt ranil is counting on puppet and chandrika to get slfp members to defect. and indeed some will. but they will be digging their own political graves, because government wont be able to function or last long even with them.
for in addition to above political reality, there is the economic reality; we are heading for fiscal and balance of payment crises. this stems from 3 main sources,
- irresponsible budget of the so called yahapalana government,
- attempt by unp to extort kick backs from from investors through arbitrary illegal stoppage of projects and contracts,
- incompetent and corrupt government financing resulting in government borrowing more in 1 six months than whole of last year, (and unlike last year has nothing to show for it).
imf will be called in. but will demand austerity, with welfare and public service cuts. can such a punny government push that through? will ranil go beg chinese to help out, after slandering all the chinese dealing with sri lanka of corruption (and will his western masters allow him)? he is certainly not going to get economic aid or investment from west however slavishly he acts towards them. and india simply can't help.
as an opponent of this piece of human garbage, i would have enjoyed ranil's desperate flailings in next few months, but unfortunately his incompetence will bring disaster on countless innocent sri lankans. that is what some of his foreign backers (especially tamil diaspora) wants, but we don't. but such suffering is inevitable consequence of electing puppet and then letting ranil through backdoor.
hopefully (in fact almost certainly) within a year all this will be played out and we will finally get rid of filthy idiot ranil and his toyboys for good.
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11 comments:
I don't much fancy what lies ahead with TNA many unfair political demands with no functioning opposition thanks to Sirisena controlling the main opposition.
but how do you plan to chase away Ranil? Whether he is disastrous or successful his government will run for 5 years.
anon @ 8/18/2015 10:33 PM
while it is true that parliament cannot be dissolved without 2/3 majority for 4.5 years .
at some point, soon enough, ranil will not have enough votes to pass anything including budgets and will not be able to continue . nor will he able to keep his promises . will be extremely unpopular . no doubt puppet will try others on his side then but they too will fail. so that eventually opposition gov be formed and/or an election can be forced .
At the end of the day, the anti-MR forces have replaced a Leader whose leadership style they often described as being ‘dictatorial and autocratic’ with not ONE but TWO individuals who have already demonstrated that they possess and are willing to use dictatorial and autocratic techniques to impose their wills on their respective Parties. Our Motherland will now be at the mercy of this two-headed Hydra.
anon @ 8/19/2015 10:15 AM
agree
only bright spot it is that both are rather incompetent and seem to live in bubbles, removed from reality . this is observable in their actions which always(unlike only sometimes for others) have a way of resulting in consequences they did not intend.
this is also bad in leaders, but such leaders wont last long
btw unp got 106 seats not 105 as i wrote in post. that was a typo, i just saw it now . i have it right on results post.
Just interested. You were heavily favoring Ranil in 2005. Why do think he will fail utterly now? The war is over. Mahinda did the hard part. Now shouldn't it be easier for Ranil?
Ranil did many un-excusable things when the war was going and even after the war was won. I know them but I'm interested in why Ranil should fail economically now if he was relatively better in 2005.
anon @ 8/19/2015 7:00 pm
i think gave my reasons why ranil will fail NOW in the post. but in shorter version it is because he does not have a stable government to push through the reforms that imf(in fact crisis situation even without imf) will demand. nor will he be able to do without such reforms by getting investments from china on the scale required while he slavishly pander to west and india. will he make u turn on china? i don't think so but we will see.
as for comparing his economic performance in 2001-2004 with now (which is a different question)-
he has clearly abandoned what he was doing then economically in irresponsible budget( and way before that in his criticism of mahinda policies) and his purely politically motivated decisions on economy .
his economic advisers then were pb jayasundera, ajith nivard cabraal etc almost all of them joined mahinda. in recent years ranil has been spouting anti market polices, if you listen carefully. as i have said many times in various posts and comments here, in terms of free market capitalism mahinda (while far from being one ideologically) was the more 'free one' in actuality.
Fair enough. But I don't think he will persuade anti-market policies this time. He just acted like a fake socialist while in opposition and before the general election to attract some votes and so that leftists can support him with some dignity.
I think he will shift to ultra right now but the question is whether he will have the support to sustain it. Like you rightly pointed out he used anti market criticism to attack the Rajapakshe government so I don't know how he can persuade the same policies now.
anon @ 8/20/2015 6:33 pm
i can't agree with you about his turning right. i don't think he ever really believed in or was committed to market driven economy . even in 2001-2004 period he never publicly defended free market (as other real leaders around the world did , and as did some of his advisers like moragoda ). a fact i pointed out even then.
it was his advisers who were capitalist and they almost all joined mahinda .
ranil is a politician with no economic ideology. he is basically what thatcher would have called a "wet" conservative( so are his current advisers like malick) .
as such his criticism of mahinda was not a pose but his being a politician and only a politician. that is why he will not make any radical change to right .
economic situation ( and perhaps imf soon) demand that he must, but political situation does not (and will not allow ). so he wont pursue that direction.
Interesting perception. I think (majority of Sri Lanka too) that Ranil (along with his father and JR) represented the ultra right while Senanayakes represented center right.
Do you have a blog post that you pointed out then that Ranil does not represent real market economy?
btw I appreciate you representing Sri Lanka when we were at war with the armed separatists. It was a frustrating time where bulk of the internet citizen did not support the legitimate security forces of the country.
waoo nice post regarding "disaster ahead! pederast ranil's unp fails to get majority, will ruin country, & fall "
Thanks,
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