Sunday, August 16, 2015

contrast the choices on offer before voting

here i will give a brief contrast between choices available in tomorrow's voting. decide if i am right or wrong (or omitted anything). then clarify and express your thoughts rationally here(or just in your own mind). then go vote.

practically choice is between a country led by mahinda or by ranil. (sirisena is clearly incapable of leading on his own, has no substantive independent political support, and is only capable of arbitrary actions that can be circumvented). 

minor parties 
while minor parties a technically choices, voting for them is a vote wasted if our aim is to choose next government. one can vote for such parties for other reasons. for instance, tamil racists can vote for despicable tna, impractical idiots living in past blind to present day realities can vote for jvp, etc. 

btw there are no libertarian choices at all, even if i wanted to waste my vote intentionally.  

main criteria for contrasting mahinda and ranil are,
  • their past records. 
  • likely future government they will form

past records
mahinda has an impressive record of delivering what he promised. with few blemishes.
  • terrorists were defeated, peace achieved.
  • economic growth rate reached new sustained highs, debt to gdp percentage was reduced to 70% from close to 100%, foreign reserves reached $9b+, inflation was reduced to low single digits, unprecedented infrastructure development, expansion of tourism, etc.,etc..
  • independent non aligned foreign policy, using china to balance india's intrusions and west's waning hegemony.    
  • far from being a dictator as alleged, democracy prevailed to the extant that he allowed conditions for elections that can defeat him, and when defeated, promptly left office. constitutional impeachment of a chief justice. misuse of state media and resources for propaganda. 
  • alleged corruption (though not one charge has been proven by new government in-spite of having ample opportunity and usage of extra legal methods of investigation, such as fcid), nepotism.

in contrast ranil's record is one of dismal incompetence. plus all the blemishes that mahinda has.
  • he failed in his dealing with terrorists and some of those dealings were downright traitorous and cost blood of innocents. he still panders to remaining followers of terrorists' racist ideology. 
  • wasn't able to make much change in economic growth or debt in previous periods of governing. this year,through an irresponsible budget, he managed to bring down growth and reserves, and increase debt, with nothing whatever to show for any of that. stopping variety of infrastructure developments on flimsy grounds(in order to extort kick backs) with disastrous consequences for economy.
  • slavishly panders to west, and obeys india. with sri lanka getting nothing, absolute zero, in return. 
  • has a record of acting dictatorially and illegally, using fine print and loopholes, instead of openly, to retain power in country or in his own party. violation of constitution to remove a chief justice. was implicated in torture camps during 1980s, using dictatorial methods through puppet sirisena to prevent mahinda and party from contesting fairly and freely. use of illegal methods and false investigations to harass political opponents. misuse of state media and resources for propaganda. 
  • clearly the mover behind central bank bond scum this year, and related attempted cover ups to protect governor in order stop evidence implicating himself. widespread attempt to extort foreign investors through stoppage of infrastructure developments by his government. nepotism.  

likely future governments
now let us contrast the conditions and methods that each will face and use after election if they form a government.

mahinda led upfa has a chance to obtain a clear majority, if free and fair elections were held. in that case sisrisena will be forced to make him prime minister. even if upfa fails to get a clear majority due to dictatorial actions of the ranil's puppet, upfa may get more seats than any other party. in which case even if puppet allows ranil to form a government, and he accepts, it will be extremely unstable(see below) and will fall within a year at most. and mahinda will be made prime minster eventually.

mahinda has shown he can get variety of non upfa mps to support his government and more importantly his polices. though puppet may try to destablize it few years down, it will be stable in mid term. such a stable government will be similar in its polices to mahinda government before january 8, offering economic growth security, and independence (with crony capitalism). terrorists and their racist ideology will be repressed. there would of course be retaliatory prosecution of ranil and supporters. imo such a government was and is a good thing. you are free to differ.

ranil will not get a clear majority. most probably unp led alliance will get 2nd most number of seats (with extremely slight chance of getting more than upfa). in either case, puppet may ask him to form government. which will depend on upfa defections, tamil and muslim racists and extremists, hela urumaya sinhala extremists, jvp marxist extremists, etc., etc..  ranil, in contrast to mahinda, has no record of getting others to follow his polices. government will be unstable and will struggle to pass any legislation. if same irresponsible polices, as present, are continued, economy will be facing great disaster by end of this year. but reversal of such policies (during next budget) will be politically impossible.  government will fall. imo such a government would be bad for country.

contrast between choices available are clear. clarify your thoughts, refute me if possible. then vote rationally.

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Anonymous said...

Either way we are fucked. If Mahinda wins we will have some growth, stability and separatists at bay but west will certainly punish us for beating their man. There will be economic repercussions like EU fish imports ban. They may organize to violent revolution like in Ukrain.

If Ranil wins, there will be no money for any of his naive super projects like Colombo megapolis because he will be pushing away China, the only Country that has the resources and willingness to growth with us. There would not be economic or UN level repercussions but they will lead Ranil towards a con-federal type power devolution after merging north and east.

sittingnut said...

anon @! 8/16/2015 5:09 PM
agree with most of what you say.
however i don't think west can really 'punish' us all that much, in the mid or long term. protectionist things like fish bans are being imposed even without any desire to influence others because their own economies are trouble and will be ever more so as time goes. less we depend on on west for anything economically or politically ,( given west will be on continuing relative decline and will be acting accordingly) the better in the long term.