in spite of trying through his puppet sirisena to destabilize opposing major party, slfp led upfa, by removing general secretaries and central committee members in the final days of election. ranil's unp utterly failed to secure a simple majority.
it got only 105 seats, and a majority needs 113.
even in that 105, its not all unp. it includes hela urumaya, slfp breakaways loyal to chandrika, slmc and breakaways members, various cwc elements, and few other parties. they may get 1 slmc mp elected independently, and perhaps devananda from epdp. but all these small groups will demand their share of loot. since their primary motive for getting together was to oppose mahinda, some of what they what contradict each other.
even in that 105, its not all unp. it includes hela urumaya, slfp breakaways loyal to chandrika, slmc and breakaways members, various cwc elements, and few other parties. they may get 1 slmc mp elected independently, and perhaps devananda from epdp. but all these small groups will demand their share of loot. since their primary motive for getting together was to oppose mahinda, some of what they what contradict each other.
he would be tempted by tamil racists of tna, but will explode himself if he gives into any of their demands.
no doubt ranil is counting on puppet and chandrika to get slfp members to defect. and indeed some will. but they will be digging their own political graves, because government wont be able to function or last long even with them.
for in addition to above political reality, there is the economic reality; we are heading for fiscal and balance of payment crises. this stems from 3 main sources,
- irresponsible budget of the so called yahapalana government,
- attempt by unp to extort kick backs from from investors through arbitrary illegal stoppage of projects and contracts,
- incompetent and corrupt government financing resulting in government borrowing more in 1 six months than whole of last year, (and unlike last year has nothing to show for it).
imf will be called in. but will demand austerity, with welfare and public service cuts. can such a punny government push that through? will ranil go beg chinese to help out, after slandering all the chinese dealing with sri lanka of corruption (and will his western masters allow him)? he is certainly not going to get economic aid or investment from west however slavishly he acts towards them. and india simply can't help.
as an opponent of this piece of human garbage, i would have enjoyed ranil's desperate flailings in next few months, but unfortunately his incompetence will bring disaster on countless innocent sri lankans. that is what some of his foreign backers (especially tamil diaspora) wants, but we don't. but such suffering is inevitable consequence of electing puppet and then letting ranil through backdoor.
hopefully (in fact almost certainly) within a year all this will be played out and we will finally get rid of filthy idiot ranil and his toyboys for good.
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