Lanka Libertarian

Thursday, January 08, 2015

sri lanka 2015 presidential election results online

according to tradition of this blog, i will publish the results of 2015 presidential election held today on one page (updated as results are received).

based on experience, i will publish following useful results in compressed but comprehensible form, rather than meaningless numbers that others do. there is also no need to click through to many pages, as in other places; all needed info will be in this 1 page.

a running count of totals so far for main candidates .

mahinda rajapaksa	5,768,090	48%
maithripala sirisena	6,217,162	51%

last update 1230hrs 01/09/2015.

in 2010, mr got 6,015,934 votes (57.88%), while sarath foneska got 4,173,185 (40.15%) of total votes.

{comments and notes

this section between curly brackets will include any comments and notes by me, if necessary. unlike other blog posts, i will edit this section as i go on. so nothing here will be permanent.

there may be one or two typos. i will proof read this later. also some election department pages for kandy district are not available. though they seem to be fixing this. i will ink them later.

}

other useful data

i will give a 2 percentage splits for each electoral division for 2015 and 2010.
like so-

57/40

53/45

left numbers are percentage of votes for mahinda rajapaksa (2015 on top, 2010 bottom), right top is maithripala sisrisena 2015. right bottom is for sarath fonseka 2010.

i will highlight background of each year in each division with color of that division's winner in that year (blue for mr, brown for sf and sm)

i will also give the same percentages splits at district level once all divsions are in for that district.

all results will be linked to election department website, where you can find the official results with much more details if needed.

divisional results
2010 result will be at bottom of each box, 2015 results will be filled on top of that as they come in.
colombo district (2010 53/46 )
colombo north, colombo central, borella, colombo east, colombo west, dehiwala
ratmalana, kolonnawa, kotte, kaduwela,avissawella, homagama
maharagama,kesbewa, moratuwa, postal

24/75 29/70	18/81 23/76	32/67 41/57	32/67 40/59	20/79 24/74	34/66 44/55
44/56 53/46	41/58 53/46	41/58 52/47	50/49 62/37	54/45 64/34	55/45 67/33
51/49 62/36	55/45 65/34	49/51 58/41	51/48 64/36

gampaha district (2010 62/37)
wattala,negombo, katana, divulapitiya,mirigama, minuwangoda,
attanagalla, gampaha, ja-ela, mahara, dompe, biyagama,
kelaniya , postal

40/59 50/49	32/67 46/53	48/51 60/39	53/46 62/37	53/47 64/35	51/48 64/35
52/48 66/33	54/45 68/31	47/52 58/41	53/46 66/33	58/41 70/29	50/49 62/38
46/53 57/42	50/50 68/32

kalutara district (2010 63/35)
panadura, bandaragama, horana,bulathsinhala, matugama, kalutara,
beruwala,agalawatta,postal

49/50 61/38	55/44 65/34	57/42 66/32	56/43 65/33	54/45 64/34	52/47 63/36
42/57 54/44	56/43 65/33	53/46 68/31

kandy district (2010 54/44)
galagedara, harispattuwa, patha-dumbara, uda-dumbara, teldeniya, kundasale,
hewaheta, senkadagala, mahanuwara, yatinuwara, udunuwara, gampola
nawalapitiya, postal

51/47 58/39	41/58 52/47	41/58 50/48	59/39 65/32	49/50 56/41	44/55 56/43
46/53 52/46	42/58 52/46	33/66 43/56	48/51 58/40	40/59 51/47	42/57 50/48
44/54 57/40	48/51 67/33

matale district (2010 60/38)
dambulla, laggala, matale, rattota, postal

57/42
66/32

60/38
64/33

42/57
50/48

46/53
54/43

50/50
68/31

nuwara-eliya district (2010 43/52)
n'eliya-maskeliya,kotmale, hanguranketa, walapane,postal

galle district (2010 64/35)
balapitya,ambalangoda,karandeniya, bentara-elpitiya, hiniduma,baddegama
ratgama,galle,akmeemana,habaraduwa, postal

58/41 65/34	55/44 63/36	63/36 71/27	59/40 67/31	58/41 64/35	57/42 63/35
61/39 67/32	37/63 48/51	53/46 62/37	59/40 67/32	53/46 66/33

matara district (2010 66/33)
deniyaya, hakmana, akuressa, kamburupitiya, devinuwara, matara
weligama, postal

57/41 66/32	64/35 71/27	58/41 66/32	63/36 70/28	59/40 67/32	49/50 55/44
55/44 64/34	56/44 67/33

hambantota district (2010 67/31)
mulkirigala, beliatta, tangalle, tissamaharama, postal

65/34
71/28

jaffna district (2010 25/64)
kayts, vaddukkoddai, kankesanturai, manipay, kopay, udupiddy,
point pedro, chavakachcheri, nallur, jaffna, kilinochchi, postal,displaced

41/55 46/40	26/70 23/63	22/73 32/57	20/76 27/62	18/77 22/64	17/79 19/67
19/78 19/69	18/77 25/62	17/80 22/70	19/78 28/66	25/72 16/75	29/70 20/72

vanni district (2010 29/70 )
mannar, vavuniya, mullativu, postal, displaced

batticaloa district (2010 26/69)
kalkudah, batticaloa, padiruppu, postal

14/84
34/60

18/80
28/69

15/82
13/80

19/81
29/70

diggamudulla district (2010 48/50)
ampara, sammanturai, kalmunai, potuvil, posta, displaced

21/78
37/60

----

trincomalee district (2010 43/54)
seruwila, trincomalee, mutur, postal, displaced

----

kurunegala district (2010 63/35)
galgamuwa, nikaweratiya, yapahuwa, hiriyala, wariyapola
panduwasnuwara , bingiriya, katugampola, kuliyapitiya,dambadeniya
polgahawela, kurunegala, mawathagama, dodangaslanda, postal

60/40 67/31	55/44 64/34	57/42 65/33	53/46 64/34	58/41 68/30
56/44 62/37	54/45 61/37	55/44 62/37	51/41 59/39	55/44 65/34
52/47 63/35	45/54 57/41	48/51 59/39	53/46 61/37	48/51 68/32

puttalam district (2010 59/40)
puttalam, anamaduwa, chilaw, nattandiya, wennappuwa, postal

anuradhapura district (2010 66/32)
medawachchiya, horowupotana,anuradhapura east, anuradhapura west, kalawewa,
mihintale, kekirawa, postal

59/40 69/29	53/46 65/33	52/47 64/34	55/44 65/33	56/43 68/30
53/46 65/33	52/47 65/34	46/54 71/28

polonnaruwa district (2010 65/34)
minneriya, medirigiriya, polonnaruwa, postal

badulla district (2010 53/45)
mahiyangane, wiyaluwa, passara, badulla, hali-ela
uva-paranagama, welimada, bandarawela, haputale, postal

57/42 60/38	60/38 60/37	43/54 44/53	46/52 52/47	47/51 51/46
52/47 56/42	48/51 53/45	48/50 52/46	40/58 43/54	50/50 65/35

moneragala district(2010 69/29)
bibile, moneragala, wellawaya, postal

ratnapura district (2010 64/34)
eheliyagoda, ratnapura, pelmadulla, balangoda, rakwana, nivitigala,
kalawana, kolonna, postal

58/41 66/32	55/44 64/35	51/48 58/40	52/46 61/37	52/47 60/38	58/40 65/32
62/37 68/30	59/40 67/32	57/43 69/30

kegalle district (2010 62/36)
dedigama, galigamuwa, kegalle, rambukkana, mawanella, aranayake ,
yatiyantota, ruwanwella, deraniyagala, postal

53/46 62/36	55/44 65/34	56/44 67/32	54/45 64/34	41/58 54/45	51/47 62/36
53/46 59/38	53/46 62/37	54/44 62/36	51/48 68/32

i have not indicated displaced figures for 2010 if they are too small to mean anything

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

"tight election" and other myths and rumors

it seems maithree supporters are reduced to floating rumors in social media, and to repeating words "tight election" in every other tweet and blog post they make, as if such repetition will make it "tight". it is also a symptom of their state of denial as their fantasy breaks. lol

in fact election is peaceful and there is a high voter turnout. so they know they have to find excuses for maithree's defeat by a significant margin.

that explains the silly rumors about grenades, variety of unattributed allegations from unnamed monitors, people fleeing country, etc. etc.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

3 basic questions to answer before voting

whoever we vote for today, mahinda or maithree, answering these 3 questions will help clarify our thoughts, thus giving meaning to mark we make.

1/ with terrorists defeated, economy growing, and prevailing democracy even enabling us to kick mahinda out, should we kick him out and why? give reasons.

2/ if mahinda and his administration have faults (nepotism? corruption? ... ) would they really be cured by maithree and his backers? are they without those same faults?

3/ can maithree, dependent on failed politicians from unp and slfp, and fringe parties and racists of all kinds, be a resolute leader, able to keep as prospering and safe, especially with institution of executive presidency abolished?

if we are responsible sri lankan citizens we must be able to answer these 3 before voting.

here are my anwsers.

1/ we mustn't kick mahinda out because he has been a successful president.

2/ maithree backers are perhaps worse.

3/ maithree will be a weak president and a disaster.

you are free to answer differently. but do answer them. and if you do disagree with me, let me know in comments section, with reasons for all 3 questions. .

btw i have given reasons elsewhere why we should vote for mahinda in more detail.

i have also made a prediction, based on facts and rational calculations, that mahinda will win with a significant margin. track record of previous such predictions here, such as 2010 one, are excellent.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

Wednesday, January 07, 2015

reasons why mahinda should win

yesterday i wrote a post predicting that based on facts and rational calculations, mahinda will win by a significant margin. a prediction i am sure will be fulfilled,as my past ones here have been. this post in contrast is an opinion piece giving my reasons as to why, we, sri lankans, should elect mahinda instead of maithree, those 2 being the only credible choices available.

i will follow a post i wrote during 2010 election.

i started then by saying,

"the main failing of a representative democracy like sri lanka is that voter cannot decide on each policy individually, one by one. we have to decide between individuals who make promises to act according to a package of policies."

(while the outcome of this election, will certainly be the same as last time, a victory for mahinda rajapaksa, as i said last time, "certainty of outcome should not be a sufficient reason to favor it").

question, then and now, is how to evaluate the package of polices and the trustworthiness of the individual to carry it out.

evaluating polices

like last time, the packages offered are not ideologically consistent. only the leftist fringe candidates are offering anything like coherent policy packages. not even a fringe candidate is offering what can be termed libertarian policies that this blog adhere to. as such selection based on ideology is out of the question, unless you are a leftist who wants to post an ineffective protest vote.

of policies offered by 2 main candidates, mahinda's is more coherent and pragmatic than one offered by maithripala sirisena.

but let us examine each of the main policy issues.

economy

mahinda is basically offering continuation of same polices that were in operation last 5 years. these policies involved,

unprecedented infrastructure development,
creating conditions for expansion of service economy, and service exports, along with continuation of export of goods.
reduction of growth in import expenditure; through reduction of imports of oil for electricity generation, sugar, milk powder, etc.
creating conditions for unprecedented expansion of tourism.
consistently lower inflation than in past. consistent reduction in budget deficit, and national debt as a percentage of gdp. increase in foreign reserves to stabilize the currency.
expansion of government service and apparent subsidies(though in fact. subsides as a whole have been reduced).

all these in combination has delivered around 7% real gdp growth on average. well in excess of world and regional average.

except for the expansion of government service (and claims of increase in subsides), i have no great objections to any of this. and since sri lanka as a whole is far from being libertarian, most sri lankans would approve, rather than object to even that. though government's visible hand in reduction of certain imports, and its direct hand in infrastructure development, are violations of free market principles, these are in fact not free markets to begin with. in any case mahinda has never been a free market capitalist.

mahinda has delivered what he promised in past. and there is no reason to believe he will fail in future.

his success in economy is such that maithree has lost all coherence in his, and his handlers, attempts to advance an alternative economic policy. they have been more or less reduced to acknowledge mahinda's success with economy. instead of criticizing mahinda's policy, they are criticizing implementation methods and details. and doing so using blatant falsehoods.

sirisena supporters say country is burdened with debt. in fact national debt as a percentage of gdp has been in steady decline. in 2004 it was 105% of gdp. now it is about 70%. absolute nominal debt figure has gone up, but because economy is growing fast (both in real terms and nominal terms, second being the relevant one here) debt as a percentage of gdp comes down.

they also say that some of the infrastructure projects are useless. however their main targets mathala airport and hambantota port are in fact operating successfully. their half hearted attempts to depict newly developed and improved roads as useless to common man, shows an unbelievable lack of connection with common people. they are silent or contradictory when pressed to declare whether they are going to stop these projects.

maithree also promises to increase on mahinda's promises on government subsidies and service. i think sri lankans can recognize fake empty promises.

maithree also resurrects a promise to increase government spending on education to 6% of gdp. this is the sort of ignorant impractical idiocy that confirm maithree camp has lost all hope of winning the election. sri lankan government barely collects 10% of gdp in revenue and spends less than15% of gdp in total. as such without drastic tax increases, and/or massive cuts in every other sort of public spending from health, defense, agriculture, debt service, pensions, salaries of public servants, etc, this is impossible.

in sum, maithree has been content to hurl variety of criticisms (more than tinged with absurd falsifications of facts) at mahinda's implementations, instead of offering a pragmatic coherent policy on economy. he himself has no track record on economy and politicians that surround and control him, both from unp and slfp, have track records of failure.

corruption & good governance

an issue related to economy is corruption, which the maithree camp has tried to turn into a major issue. it isn't. of course economy has grown, so no doubt corruption has kept pace with growth. but present government is no more corrupt than previous ones, and any future ones. changing one set of governing politicians with another set (esp a set that were corrupt last time they were in power) wont change a thing. as i have maintained from start of this blog, only way to reduce corruption is to reduce the size of government, thus power of politicians and bureaucrats to control public funds and regulations. but maithree is not advocating that, as such his promise to fight corruption are false.

nepotism is another charge against mahinda. he certainly has used and given power to his brothers. but whether that is bad or not, depends on their competence. a competent bother is preferable to an incompetent outsider. his brothers that matter, gotabaya and basil, are competent at their jobs, with solid achievements. in contrast, politicians in maithree camp, chandrika and ranil, among others, also rose through nepotism, and more importantly, were and are incompetent. maithree's own brothers are far from admirable.

executive presidency

this is another non issue that opposition has tried to raise to a major issue. no sri lankan with any sense will want to do away with executive presidency. it was that institution that allowed the steady leadership needed to defeat tamil terrorist pussies. similar stability is needed between elections to create a stable environment for development. under this constitution, if electorate wants, it can provide a needed check to presidency through parliament. as happened in early last decade.

given the political make up of country with lot of small parties, and proportional electoral system, doing away with executive presidency will create an unstable wavering extremely weak governments dependent on whims of those fringe parties.

fact that maithree, dependent on those fringe parties, promises this, is a solid reason for defeating him.

national security

sri lankans who wish to live in a free democratic country must keep their eyes open for any revival of tamil racist terrorism. while they are defeated in sri lanka , they are visibly active (and in some cases openly pandered to) in west. and their racist ideology and goals are is still the ideology and goals of racist party, tna, their one time faithful political arm.

until tna unconditionally condemns ltte and its big pussy mass murderer prabhakaran, and participate in democratic processes, like the parliamentary select committee, to find solutions to grievances of all communities in north and east provinces, they should be treated with suspicion. that is why their extension of support to maithree should make voters for maithree hesitate a lot before marking their vote.

maithree supporters counter this by saying many former tamil terrorists, like karuna, are supporting mahinda. difference is that these individuals contributed to condemnation and defeat of tigers, while tna and ilks, did not. nor is mahinda dependent on them, while maithree is lost without tna support.

a weak president or prime minister, dependent on fringe parties, including racist parties like tna and slmc, is bad for national security and stability and must not be elected.

those are the main policy issues, and with regard to all of them, mahinda is the better choice.

judging individual trustworthiness

we also have to judge whether these candidates can be trusted enough to carry out their duties and promises.

last time i said, based on his track record, "we can generally expect rajapaksa to govern from a pragmatic center left position." he has done exactly that. he has displayed strong stable leadership needed to develop sri lanka and keep it strong. in fact there is no need to change him even if alternative was a similar individual.

maithree on the other hand, is a colorless mediocre cipher. he has no notable achievements. he is harmless enough as a bureaucrat and lower functionary. but not a person from whom resolute leadership can be expected. his political position as a dependent of others in past and now, makes it worse. he wont be able to stand up to corrupt opportunists, racists, foreign interferers, or terrorists.

conclusion

by all criteria for evaluating candidates, mahinda is far superior to other possible alternative, sirisena. so let us contribute to inevitable mahinda victory by voting for him.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

reasons why mahinda will win by a significant margin

as people have noted, this blog can proudly boast of an excellent track record of correctly predicting outcomes of electoral, political, military, and economic, events. in this post, i will explain why upfa candidate, mahinda rajapaksa would win the sri lankan presidential election to be held on 8th january 2015, using reason, and facts and figures. in another post tomorrow, i hope to argue why he should win according to my political opinion. but this post is based on calculations, not opinions.

like the similar post i made before the 2010 presidential election, i will demonstrate why mahinda will win, mainly by demolishing the electoral vote calculations advanced by supporters of his opponent, so called common opposition candidate, maithripala sirisena of ndf.

however, before that, i will use another way of looking at this. that is to consider the differences between 2010 election and this one

differences between 2010 election and this one.

what in fact are the differences? and how would they affect the outcome?

then and now, unp and main minority racist parties are supporting opposition candidate. no difference. fact that both tna and unp grass roots are largely indifferent is true, then and now.

if anything, given the lower profile of unp leadership around sirisena, and higher profile of all sort of fringe politicians like chandrika and rajitha, apathy among unpers is greater.

some "old guard" slfp politicians are switching sides, or are lukewarm to mahinda and his campaign. but most of them are mediocre colorless figures (like sirisena himself) and cannot transfer votes in any material way.

more racist muslim leaders in opposition camp than in 2010. good for maithree, but not by much. more on this below.

jvp did most of the grass root work for sarath fonseka. this time it is sitting it out and only extending tacit support, as well as basically hiring out cadres. not good for maithree.

top leaders of jhu has switched sides but not the grass roots, and party is imploding as we write. in any case it was more an ideology, rather than a mass party.

perhaps the main difference is the length of mahinda's rule, and inevitable slow erosion of popularity. but recent minor elections do not indicate this has reached significant levels needed for his defeat.

these differences are not significant enough to change the election result.

now for my main calculation.

trashing opposition's electoral vote calculations

unlike last time, this time maithree supporters have not advanced detailed faux projections as to why maithree would win, confining themselves to broad generalizations.

they argue that since sirisena will get minority vote, splitting a significant portion of the sinhala buddhist vote, even if it is a minority among them, will result in a maithree victory. last time too, they made the same claim, and rational people pointed out (i too in a separate post) that this is a mere racist myth and far from reality. since obviously they are still living in mythical realms, i will remake my point.

in the most fantastical and most widespread version, they assert that unless mahinda gets 72% of sinhala buddhists, he is lost. where do they get this 72%? they get it by dividing 50% (majority needed to win) by 70% (proportion of sinhala buddhists in population). absurdity of this calculation should be obvious to anyone with any brains, but at least 2 of the main campaigners for sirisena (rajitha senaratne, mangala samaraweera) and variety of others, including some editorial writers, have used this 72% number.

this, and even less absurd versions of the same argument, assume several blatant falsehoods as truth.

1/ that all, or vast majority, of all minorities will vote against mahinda.

2/ that 4 main minority groups (sri lankan tamils, upcountry(indian) tamils, muslims, sinhala catholics) that make up roughly 30% of sri lankan population, are similar to each other in their voting behavior, and there are no conflicts between them.

3/ that their primary criteria for voting for a candidate is based on alleged interests (as propagated by racist and religious ideologues) of their race and/or religion, rather than their personal, family, gender, security, economic, professional, and other, interests.

4/ that each of the 4 groups are homogeneous internally, without differing, and sometimes conflicting, regional, religious, class, caste, etc, etc, groups within them.

5/ that these primarily racially motivated (as this opposition claim assumes, see above) minorities will turnout on election day to choose between 2 sinhala buddhists in same numbers as sinhala buddhists, since otherwise their vote percentage of total votes will fall below 30%.

6/ that sinhala buddhists are either,

(a) not motivated by racial/religious interests, unlike minorities,

or (b) they are easily hoodwinked into splitting, and voting against their racial/religious interests (and for racial/religious interests of minorities), by merely giving them an alternative sinhala buddhist candidate.

all these assumptions, essential to success of sirisena, are false. and some of them can only be assumed by contemptible racists.

i will now examine the reality, and make conservative estimates of votes mahinda will likely to get from various groups.

likely vote splits among minorities

past records indicate that vote share from any ethnic/religious group, for one party/candidate, in a contested election, rarely exceed 75% of total votes of that group, if ever. in this election such a figure is unlikely from any of the main minority groups.

of the 4 groups, only the sri lankan tamils, led by racist party tna, are likely to give sirisena anything like a 70-75%+ majority, if that. whatever the vote split of sl tamils, there are reasons to think that they are less engaged than other sri lankans with this election, which will reduce their share of total sri lankan vote. last week i opined that tna's decision to overtly(rather than tacitly) support for sisrisena was due to apathy of their supporters.

muslim votes, and politicians, are usually split more evenly. last presidential election is a case in point. racist parties like slmc, and others, that claim to control muslim votes have in fact no track record to prove that claim. however, various observers claim that so called "riots" in aluthgama etc, in 2014 will result in a more pronounced anti mahinda vote from muslims. existence and strength of anti mahinda sentiment due to aluthgama incidents (which have no direct connection to mahinda personally, while some politicians, who are allegedly connected more closely, are now supporting maithree) is doubtful given that none of the muslim politicians felt it necessary to break with mahinda at the time. anyway, let us crush my doubts, and assume these others are right about this sentiment among muslims, and instead of 60/40 split against mahinda, i assumed in 2010 (and actual muslim vote of 50/50 at least then) let us assume a 66/33 split against mahinda among muslims this time.

upcountry(indian) tamil votes going against mahinda is unlikely without a last minute change of sides on the part of cwc leadership. unlike muslim parties, cwc has a proven track record of delivering votes. without last minute (now highly unlikely) surprises, actual vote split among upcountry tamil vote is likely to be 60/40 for mahinda, at the very least. but let us be conservative and prudent, and assume it is 50/50 against him.

sinhala catholic vote in recent years have in fact gone for upfa and mahinda by a slight majority. look at past votes in mostly suburban electorates on the coastal belt to north of colombo (with the exception of negombo town itself, which votes a slight majority against him, not unlike non catholic urban electorates elsewhere btw). there is no reason whatsoever to think this is going to change. as such this vote is going to be 50/50, with even a probable slight majority for mahinda. but let as be conservative and assume it is 55-60/45-40 against mahinda.

now let us add up these conservative estimates for minority votes. let us conservatively accept the 30% population figure for minorities, with no drop in turnout;

with sri lankan tamils(7%-), upcountry(indian) tamils(7%+), muslims(9%+), sinhala catholics(7%-).

now split the respective percentage populations maithree/mahinda according to my assumptions above;

5/2, 3.5/3.5, 6/3, 4/3.

now total them;

((5+3.5+6+4)/(2+3.5+3+3)).

that is 18.5% for maithree, and 11.5% for mahinda of total 30% minority votes.

in the interest of space and clarity, i am dismissing the internal splits in each group and between the minority groups. effects of most of which are likely to add to mahinda vote tally. however i will give an example of what i am referring by pointing out that a main political concern of tamil catholics in mannar have been settlement of muslims in that district under the patronage of former minister rishad bathiudeen. who is now in sirisena camp.

sinhala buddhist vote split

with mahinda getting more than 11%+ of minority 30% of population, instead of 72% of sinhala buddhist votes, he need only 55% ((50-11.5)/70) of sinhala buddhist vote to get 50% of total votes.

this is a certainty.

his party, upfa, without him on ballot, got 58%-68% votes in electorates where there are no significant minorities, in recent provincial elections. note that upfa got that, even in cases where upfa's mediocre non charismatic chief minister candidates went against charismatic unp chief minister candidates. with jhu staying away from vote, and muslims contesting separately.

in contrast to provincial elections, in presidential election, upfa candidate is clearly more charismatic and personally popular.

mahinda has a better funded, much better organization, that is directly controlled by his campaign, rather than party. not to mention authority due to him as incumbent.

sirisena is highly dependent on local conditions in each electorate for lower level organization, and a varied bunch of disagreeing politicians at top level for funding and control.
he must rely on uncertain support of local unp organizers and others. both unp and slfp politics are based on patronage networks. it is doubtful whether lower level unp leaders would go out of their way to elect sirisena when he is not part of their patronage network, nor the alternative slfp one to which they can switch. with a few exceptions, most of them seem to be doing a bare minimum for his campaign. this is actually very similar to 2010, when unp at grass root level did very little for fonseka. most of the grass root work, as i and others noted at the time, was done by jvp.

this time jvp is sitting it out, extending only tacit support for reasons of its own, and in some cases basically hiring out its grass roots cadre for money to sirisena.

meanwhile, jhu is imploding and has lost all credibility.

due to all these factors, it would be easy for mahinda to post around 60% among sinhala buddhists, well in excess of 55%, at most, required for victory.

as such, i predict, conservatively, that mahinda would likely get more (probably much more) than 52% of total votes. which would mean a 5%+ margin of victory over maithree, at a minimum.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

Thursday, January 01, 2015

reason tna openly endorsed sirisena

why did racist party tamil national alliance(tna) openly endorse maithripala sirisena instead of tacitly supporting him as they have done so far? they intended to continue with tacit support from beginning to end, given the obvious backslash their overt support it will have on sirisena's southern support.

answer is, tna knew there was a high chance of voter indifference to both candidates, and thus low voter turnout in north. whole election campaign calculation of so called common opposition candidate is based on garnering maximum number of votes from variety of fringe and marginal groups with contradictory ideologies, goals, and aspirations. fatal problem with this strategy is that, while in order to pander to such disparate groups the candidate has to be a vague nebulous object (natural role for cipher sirisena), such marginal groups care a great deal about what they want and demand concrete details, clarity, and trust, to participate in any meaningful way.

in case of tamil racists, sirisena is not offering anything to them openly that will motivate them to vote for him. in fact he is rejecting even alleged secret understandings and agreements. with only tna's tacit support and no open campaigning or organizational clout before, and on day of, election, there was real possibility that mahinda will actually win in north with low turnout of tna voters. remember that tamil parties supporting mahinda got 25%+ support even when tna was going all out against him and tna was much more popular with tamils.

so in order to organize, and get out their supporters to vote, and even to provide observers for sirisena in polling booths on election day, tna had to drop its mask.

however, whether open support at party leadership level will translate into actual grass root organizing and votes is yet to be seen. especially given the rejection and denial of actual open written agreements required for actual work.

in contrast, as a result of tna's open endorsement, there is no doubt about the reduction in support from variety of groups for sirisena; centrists who reject racist parties gaining power, sinhala buddhist racist fundamentalists, victims of tna's former masters tiger terrorist pussies, etc, etc. some people in these groups who may have thought sirisena a viable pragmatic democratic alternative to mahinda before tna endorsement have changed their minds.

imo, with racist tna support, sirisena will probably win in north, but with much smaller margins in smaller vote turnouts (in places with comparatively smaller populations to begin with ) than he would require in order to offset the big margins of victory mahinda will post in more populous south.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian

happy new year!

just want to wish you all happy new year. will be posting after a long absence soon.

෴

my twitter - http://twitter.com/sittingnut
this blog's twitter - http://twitter.com/llibertarian