who is getting better of whom?

poor mahinda buffalo.:-)
on the day he named his cabinet, those dastardly media from bbc down, chose to focus on the infighting and the resignation rather than how his buffalo cabinet was going to implement his 'buffalo chinthanaya'. but then this must be the most boring cabinet reshuffle ever. jobs were given strictly according to seniority and loyalty. buffalo has failed to notice that other institutions where seniority is the main qualification for advancement, like the army or the police are veritable wrecks . even the prime minister was probably appointed based on his seniority than on anything else. i personally think ppl read too much into that particular appointment. one thing is clear, buffalo's main priority is to strengthen the slfp and his own position.

fact is, the most important question facing the country(whether there is going to be a war or not) is being decided in some bunker in vanni and we(including buffalo) have to wait till 27th to know the answer (that is if we get one at all on that day).

while we wait, it might be fun to observe what exactly is going on inside the upfa.

why did jvp not accept any portfolios?

there are two possible reasons and respective consequences .
sunanda deshapriya speaking to afp probably put it best "if the jvp did not take ministries on their own that means they want to hold the 'remote control' over the government, if they were left out because of disagreement, then we can expect an election.'

and it increasingly it seems that the second reason is the correct one. following makes that clear,

that toady sripathy sooriyarachchi, who got what he deserved yesterday and resigned within hours bc that portfolio(who cares what it was) is, "non existent and previously unheard of and is not in keeping with my qualification", also criticized the buffalo (to pti) for keeping the jvp out of the cabinet.
last saturday mangala samaraweera in a news conference after the president's swearing in said jvp has already agreed to accept cabinet portfolios in the rajapakse government.
a cabinet minister speaking off the record to the afp (probably jeyraj fernandopulle) said that there were differences with the jvp about the appointments and the president can improve the strength of the slfp and reduce the dependency on the jvp by going for a early parliamentary election.

so even though jvp might give a bogus explanation today at the press conference they have called, it seems that the buffalo has realized that as long as he has to rely on the jvp and the jhu he will be perceived as weak and wants to change that asap or at least wants to give that impression. he probably tried to rope them in to the buffalo herd by offering some portfolios other than what they wanted and when that failed he decided to play for higher stakes.

it's a risky strategy for both parties. if jvp does not give in we might really end up with an election and both the buffalo and the jvp might lose in the end.

if they contest separately(with jhu doing the same), upfa's collective no of mps will fall, even though their collective no of votes go up, bc unp will end up as the biggest party in many districts and thus bagging the bonus seats for those districts. btw bonus seats have become the main deciding factor in sri lankan elections under current proportional representation system.

on the other hand slfp mps now numbering 71 will probably increase at the expense of jvp. so this strategy is especially dangerous for jvp (jvp has 39 mps at the moment) they can very well end up with less than 20 mps.

bc of this even if jvp decides to contest with the slfp they will be offered less positions in the upfa lists, ensuring lesser no of seats for them, say about 30 or so.

so buffalo seems to be offering two choices for jvp, either

• take the portfolios he is offering them,
• or contest the election with slfp( which means they will get less no of mps but will remain part of the ruling coalition).

we could end p with a third possibility, namely buffalo and the jvp fall out, but he does not dissolve parliament in which case (btw this is similar to what has prevailed since jvp went out of government over p-toms) government will not be able to do anything constructive and will become increasingly weaker.

on second thoughts, that third option is not all bad for the country, less action on the part of the buffalo herd and the jvp the better, but will we get that?.

or will jvp give in? or will they go it alone (giving a huge boost to the unp)?

will the buffalo have the strength to carry this out to the end ? will he give in to the jvp?

and what happens if there is a war?

only the time will tell.