Friday, November 18, 2005

early trends in election.

first the conclusion
mahinda supporters don't be too eager to celebrate. you might lose.

when i calculated the possible election result scenarios i gave what were probably the least requiremets for ranil to win in scenarios no 3
namely.
1. a swing of 2.5% from ufpa to unp from 2004 vote
2. additional 1.5%, who stayed away voting for unp
3. jhu vote splitting 2:1 between mahinda and ranil
4. 25% of northeast voters will vote inspite of ltte boycott.

now lets see how the vote is going with regard to above.

1. a swing of 2.5%

best place to test is in rural districts where jhu was not a factor in 2004.
i will take two
first horowupotana in anuradhapura district.
2004: upfa 56.63% unp 41.42% jhu got 1.14%
2005: mahinda 53.72%(down 2.91%), unp 44.94% (up 3.52%)

next beliatta in habantota district
2004 upfa 64.06%, unp 35.28% jhu did not contest in hambantota in 2004.
2005 mahinda 64.56% (up 0.5%) unp 34.01%(down 1.27%)
remember that hambantota is mahinda's home and jvp's strongest

results for other divisions show same kind of thing
what to make of it?maybe this: there is a small swing in districts outside of southern province, in south mahinda just holding on to his votes.

2. 1.5% additional votes

this is very difficult to measure, so i will not. but here is what happened in colombo central(one of the main unp strongholds).
in 2004, upfa+jhu got - 26,562, unp- 71,599,
this time mahinda 20,395(6167 less) ranil 78,908 (7309 more)
difference other than swing is 1142, this is 1.14% of 2004 total votes. make of that what you will.

3. jhu split

i will test this using maharagama data where unp famously came 3rd after upfa and jhu in 2004.
in 2004, upfa - 43.92%, jhu - 29.41%, unp - 25.87%
in 2005, mahinda - 59.37% , ranil - 39.91%
as you see unp vote went up by 14.04% while mahinda's went up by 15.45% so it seems jhu vote is splitting 2:1 or better in favor of ranil.


4. 25% of northeast voters voting

here there are differing results according to district.
in jaffna less than 1% (some time less than .01% ) are voting even in cleared areas.
but in mannar 29.69% voted, ranil getting 88.72%


conclusion

so in case of assumptions 1 and 2 requirements are only partly fulfilled, but the evidence is not conclusive.
as for 3, split in jhu is better than expected for ranil.
in case of northeast votes we will have to see how ppl are going to vote in east, but in jaffna district this not going to happen.

so the conclusion still stands, mahinda don't celebrate too early, you can still lose.

7 comments:

Keshi said...

Mahinda or Ranil, both suck...dun u think?

Keshi.

sittingnut said...

no i don't think so.

ashanthi said...

s/nut - is it you leaving those comments on Morqs website or an imposter???

68lives said...

BREAKING ELECTION NEWS!!!!!!!!

New Evidence Suggests Noah's Sons Rode Flying Dinosaurs!!

For years, Creation Scientists have disputed how Noah was able to quickly collect millions of indigenous animals from remote, inaccessible regions of the world for a 40-day ride in his ark. New evidence from an archeological find in China supports the long held Christian belief that Noah's sons rode giant flying dinosaurs to transport duck billed platypuses from Australia, and penguins and polar bears from the Antarctic, to name a few. "Those must have been some mighty big flying dinosaurs," says Pastor Deacon Fred. "Imagine the look on Noah's face when his sons flew in for a landing with a pair of Hippos strapped to the back of one of them things! Glory to God!"

"The Lord is just amazing," says Creation Scientist, Dr. Jonathan Edwards. "Whenever Atheist scientists make a new find, they think it will hack away at our Christian beliefs. They must get pretty peeved at how sneaky our Lord is, because whenever they unearth something, it only provides more support for the historical accuracy of the Holy Bible And these flying dinosaurs they keep finding are no exception!"

Dr. Edwards explains that it would have been impossible for Noah's sons to travel to the four corners of the earth to areas that were previously inaccessible on foot. "Noah and his sons had to collect two of every single creature on the face of the planet," he says. "We're talking about a big haul here. At first we just attributed it to what Creation Scientists call, the Holy Finger Snapping Theory. That's where God snaps his fingers and just makes it so." Edwards points out that Creation Scientists are still unanimous in attributing the fact that Noah was able to load 100 million plus animals onto a 450 foot ark "in the selfsame day" (Genesis 7:13-14) to the Finger Snapping Theory. In the case of how the animals were collected from remote regions of the world in the first place however, recent archeological finds indicate that Noah's sons were able to tame giant flying dinosaurs and in turn, load them up with food supplies and hitch rides for long trips around the world to China, South America, Australia, Greenland, and the North Pole.

Creation Scientists estimate that since the Earth is only ten-thousand years old, human beings were living among dinosaurs and had plenty of time to tame them. "I would have loved to have been around to see Cain and Abel rolling around in the grass outside the Garden of Eden playing with the pet raptors their father, Adam, gave them for their birthdays," says Pastor Deacon Fred. "What a glorious time that must have been!"

ivap said...

Hope you are on the phone with those buy buy buy orders.

So, any nut crushing tonight ?

sittingnut said...

ashanthi:
i did not see any impostor there though i did not check everywhere. i am sorry if i am ranting against the ppl who boycotted but then they made a choice on their own free will(especially in cleared areas) for war and i can't stand those who want war.

ivap:
well actually i did. bought at 10.30 and sold at 12.30(some of it) and made a packet. see the cse site, if it is back up you will see what i mean.

manynames nutter:
you sound increasingly redundant. go and call the buffalo he may offer you a portfolio, he has worse ones in the his entourage.

ashanthi said...

oh sittingnut - no one wants war except those that have become virtual serial killers...

you know i don't want anymore bloodshed. I hear echoes miles aways of silent screams - not to mention torture & brutality.

everyone is pretty glum over here about the whole thing - the buffalo with a mo - Sri Lanka's latest porn star could have done the right thing & kept the JVP & JHU out.

i don't think you are ready to listen yet but .. here goes, people in those cleared areas are saying if they had voted for Ranil, members of the SL army who supported Mahinda would have attacked them. They are also saying after years & years of being betrayed at the polls - why should they vote?

Ranil didn't stretch his hands out & reach them s/nut you know this. You can't expect people to sacrifice themselves for you when you have trampled on them & given them nothing.

Remember you said that the UNP should tone down their rethoric? Well they should have never started gloating about splitting the Ltte - it's not something that wins votes.

The Tamil people are tired - they want peace - you know that too. However, their peace is not in their hands. It's in your hands...

You are still there - you have a lot of work to do - So ...


I nominate Sittingnut to be the next President of Sri Lanka, Ivap can be his PM & Morquendi can run the Press office. OK - so i want you 3 to go to the northeast & start campaining to win it back. Truly we already have the urban south - you will also have to do some serious winning of hearts & minds in the rural south.
I'd like to be the Minister of Natural Resources & Tourism. Yaroo can be Health Minister.

Tell me what you would do - where would you start - who would you have to talk to & what would you say

Sittingnut - I know how cranky you are but good on you for still being there. C'mon now - I want you back on your feet fighting.