Monday, November 14, 2005

elections statistics and scenarios

i was inspired to write this by the article presidential election 2005 : outcome revealed by rajiv de silva in lankabusinessonline website. while i will come to similar conclusions here, i think that some assumptions made in the article are way too optimistic (from a unp point of view). it also fails to explain clearly how exactly the figures for north and east were arrived at. i will explain why and how my more conservative assumptions differ from article's as we go along in more detail.

first i will start with the 2004 general election figures taken from election department website.

table 01
party votes percentage
upfa 4223970 45.60%
unp 3504200 37.83%
tna 633654 6.84%
jhu 552724 5.97%
slmc 186876 2.02%
ucpf 49728 0.54%
epdp 24955 0.27%
others 86625 0.94%
total
9262732 100.00%

please note that in following scenarios the actual numbers are meaningless and are there for calculation purposes only, it is the percentage that counts.

scenario 01 : a crude add and paste from 2004 results

here i am going to make the following assumptions.

1. nobody has changed their minds from 2004

2. there wasn't any increase in voter registration( please note that except in north east there is no significant increase anyway. as for the increase in north east given the unofficial but real ltte boycott situation i am going to assume(in line with the conservative policy on assumptions here) that will also not matter. more on boycott later.

3. upfa, jhu, and epdp votes will go to mahinda rajapakse

4. unp,slmc,ucpf votes will go to ranil wickremasinghe.

5. tna votes won't go to anybody.

the result in such a situation will be

mahinda 4801649 55.64%
ranil 3740804 43.35%
others 86625 1.01%



total polled
8629078 100.00%



tna 633654

9262732

of course this is a totally unrealistic outcome but this will be the base.


scenario 02 :

assumptions

1. there will be a 2.5% swing(of total votes) away from upfa to unp. (in lbo article it was assumed that there was a 1% swing in all district except in colombo where the swing was assumed at 3%. i don't understand the difference between colombo and the rest especially considering assumptions they made regarding the jhu vote, see below). a 2.5% swing is realistic and is in fact conservative in comparison to historical record of swings in sri lanka. for instance unp lost about 7.5 from 2001 to 2004 and pa almost the same from 2000 to 2001.

2. there will be an additional 1.5% of total votes for the unp. that a large portion of unp supporters stayed away was the only explanation for reduction(much larger than votes gained by upfa and jhu) in it's vote from 2001 to 2004. all evidence suggests that party base is much more enthusiastic than in 2004. i am also conservatively not assuming a similar phenomenon will affect the upfa this time, though it is more than likely given the internal divisions within the slfp.

3. jhu vote will split 2:1 for mahinda and ranil. in lbo article it was assumed jhu 'majority will accrue to UNP notwithstanding the JHU’s political alliance with the UPFA candidate. This assumption was made after a careful analysis of the GE 2004’s voting patterns.' imo that is too optimistic, though perhaps not unrealistic if recent opinion poll data are correct. anyway i am assuming that only one third of 2004 jhu vote(concentrated mainly in western province) will go unp way.

4. that most north east tamils ignore the unofficial boycott, 60% of those who voted for tna will vote and the vote will split 85:15 between ranil and mahinda. for what will happen if there is a more successful boycott see below. as for the split it is in fact very conservative, mahinda's support among tamils actually do not go over 10 % and please note that i have already added epdp votes to mahinda separately.

5. there wasn't any increase in voter registration, same as 2 on scenario 01

under above assumptions outcome will be :

mahinda 4439183 48.53%
ranil 4622403 50.53%
others 86625 0.94%




9148211 100.00%

in other words a 2% win for ranil though he goes over 50% by only a whisker. given that third party candidates 's second preferences if counted will probably split equally, 50% rule won't matter in any case.

scenario 03 : a more effective ltte boycott

assumptions

assumptions 1,2, and 3 are the same as in scenario 2.

4. more tamils obey the ltte boycott and only 25% of the tna votes are cast this time( which will split 85:15 as before). unofficial postal voting numbers seems to indicate that about one third voted but i will be more conservative.

5. there wasn't any increase in voter registration, same as 2 on scenario 01. i am in effect assuming that all the new north east voters will obey the boycott.

result:

mahinda 4405917 49.36%
ranil 4433891 49.67%
others 86625 0.97%




8926432 100.00%

a very marginal victory for ranil.

please note that i do not expect ltte to actively encourage votes for mahinda though they seem to have concluded that a victory for mahinda is in their best interest.(i will post separately on this stupid and seemingly illogical conclusion).

conclusion

in conclusion i am still fairly confident of a unp victory even with a ltte boycott . more so because i have made fairly conservative assumptions in calculating above scenarios.

by far the main and most important assumption is the 2.5% swing against the upfa, without it ranil will not win, period. imo the swing will be larger, but this is the minimum percentage required, anything below this will mean we will have that idiot mahinda in power on 18th..

btw i have been predicting a unp victory here and in other places for some time though i must say i did not expect a ltte boycott, anyway in light of the above i will continue to predict the same.

i have calculated several other scenarios which confirm the above conclusion. if any body wants to find out what will happen on different assumptions please feel free to post them as comments, i will try to calculate and post the results back.

if there are any errors in calculations please point them out.

21 comments:

sittingnut said...

i posted on the effects of ltte boycott in nittewa

Keshi said...

Are elections in SL ever fair?

Keshi.

Sam said...

What are you going to to do just in case - just in case - Mahinda wins?

Are you going to hang yourself?

78lives said...

What is a Catamite?

Webster's dictionary defines catamite as "the youthful lover of an older man derived from the Latin name Catamus." Catamus was the first Catholic priest, who didn't even wait until the rock of Lord Jesus' tomb was rolled back to get a young boy spread eagle on a altar (a practice that resulted in the early church adopting the name "altar boy.")

The first Pope was so impressed with Catamus' ability to bugger young altar boys while never losing his place in scripture during service, that he coined the name for the new church "Catholic," using Catamus' name and the activity for which Catamus had become notorious. The traditions establish by Catamus have become sacred rites of passage for all Catholic priests, often taking 40-50 years to perfect and master. What once was ostensibly a Christian Church has become little more than a excuse for grown men to wear dresses and bugger young boys – with the so-called "church" offering the vocational perk to its priests of often relocating pedophiles to new parishes so that they may "sample some new flavours."

Are you a Catamite? There is simple way to find out! Simply ask yourself two questions: (1) When I pull down my drawers, do I see a penis dangling between my legs? and (2) Am I a Catholic? If you answered "yes" to both of those questions then there is a 97.3% chance that you have been or are currently a catamite.

ivap said...

sam - Na, I think it'll involve some crushed nuts. :)

sittingnut said...

keshi:
well they are both fair and unfair, since both sides cheat the net effect is probably zero, especially when the electorate is large as in this case.

sam and ivap:

thanks for concern :-)

actually if mahinda wins, i will be calling my broker( like the last time) and buying up blue chip(or what passes for blue chip here) shares cheap, from panicky morons.

pussyboy with 78 lives:
you seem to be a expert in the rather irrelevant field you post on. so why don't you start a blog after getting more real world experience in the said field. buddhist monks even more than rc priests will certainly be able to help you.

or get a shrink

78lives said...

Now sittingnut, I know you were severely beaten by the ugly stick when you were a child that doesn't mean youhave the right to take out on your frustration on other people. Get back to the altar.

Keshi said...

well when will they ever learn that?

Keshi.

sittingnut said...

keshi ppl are slow learners but learners nevertheless.

mr nameless i am going to post comment that i posted about you in .
indi's blog:

some ppl are so insecure that they have to submerge themselves in a group identity. they don’t have a personality outside of that. i think we are treated to a good example of that by mr australian with many names. that the fellow can’t stick to one name and face the consequences is a good indication of his low self confidence.

what causes this ? may be living as a miserable second class citizen in a christian majority country has lot to do with it. a lot of ppl in so called diaspora both sinhala and tamil show this exaggerated love of their country and nation because of similar reasons.

Keshi said...

slow yet learners...yeah lets hope they get to it before so many lives r wasted...

Keshi.

78lives said...

Err...okay sittingnut...you're more of a nutter than I thought. I'm gonna guess your little spiel was aimed at me? Who's Indi? And what "christian majority country are you talking about"? Unless you think India is Christian majority? A little fact: It's not.

68lives said...

Kids!

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This offer is for children and teenagers only!

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He wants us to deliver a new PlayStation 2 to your house. It's as easy as 1-2-3! Understand, Jesus cares WAY more about you than your parents EVER will! They will never love you as much as Jesus loves you! Always remember that. If you hate your parents because they didn't get you a PlayStation 2 for Christmas, He completely understands! He is totally down with that! In fact, lucky for you, in order to follow Him, you are actually required to hate your parents!

"If any man come to me, and hate not his father, and mother...he cannot be my disciple." - The Lord Jesus Christ (Luke 14:26)

Pretty cool, huh? So, if you hate your parents, you are already halfway to becoming a True Christian! Congratulations!

Here is what you need to do to get your free Play Station 2:

1. Tell Jesus that you hate your parents, and that you'd rather have Him for your Daddy. Ask Him to forgive your sins, and cover you with His blood (you'll see plenty of that splattered across your TV when you play your complimentary Grand Theft Auto 3 game!).

2. Find one of your Mom or Dad's credit cards (a blank check is even better!)

3. Call our church office and we will provide you with simple instructions on how to use your parents' credit card to charge a love offering over the phone. Don't worry if you can't find a credit card. We can teach you how to use one of your daddy's cheques to do an automatic draft withdrawal (which will get you free shipping and an extra game disk!)

Please note: If your parents ask you where you got your new PlayStation 2, just tell them that your Lord and Savior, Jesus Christ, delivered it to you via the Sri Lankan Postal Service in exchange for your soul.

sittingnut said...

don't be fooled loser, if you check the source code here (if don't know how to, don't play with me) you will see that i am using the same service as indi and it says you are the same loser from australia that got hammered there.

sittingnut said...

here is the losers data :

Host Name-proxy1.library.uq.edu.au
IP Address-130.102.42.97
Country-Australia
Region-Queensland
City-Brisbane
ISP-Uqnet
Browser-MSIE 6.0
Operating System-Windows XP
Resolution-1024x768

ashanthi said...

Good for you s/nut - it's a bit like bringing the blogger out of the closet :0....

I must say Indi's blog certainly seems to attract a few schmucks - I thought the nutter was Dextr but at least he can string together a few sentences.

I suspect both dextr & this nutter have a huge issue with gays because they live in a country which has the 3rd largest gay population in the world - I think this really affects their sense of "manhood" ...

Anyway - hope you are right. When you see how close the election is, you can see why voter intimidation is needed & why the Tamil vote is so critical.

There is a Tamilnet report that there are tensions in the Jaffna SL army camps between supporters of Mahinda & Ranil - what's your take on this S/nut?

Gosh - wish i could get u to buy me some shares!!

sittingnut said...

ashanthi:
let hope for the best.
i did not see the tamilnet story you refer to.

as for nutter this one do resemble dextr :-)

as for shares, market hit a high yesterday. don't know what will happen today. anyway there won't be bargains tomorrow if ranil wins. :-)

Anonymous said...

This was an analysis that says UPFA will win. The swing theory changes this time with Ranil's planned minority votes flowing in for Mahinda.

http://www.mahinda4srilanka.org/uniportal/web/index.asp?mi=79&xp=2368&xi=3227&xl=3&o=1&t=0

sittingnut said...

anon:
if minority votes go to mahinda it won't be voluntarily. only the ltte is capable of forcing the ppl, but while they are boycotting the election unofficially, they are not going to make ppl vote for mahinda.

68lives said...

LOL. I did check the source code and could find nothing of the kind you mentioned....could you please provide some more information? Don't go jumping to conclusions dear nutter! What is the fascination with Australia? Please stop with the lies.


*************************

Children are Finding Nemo Instead of Finding Jesus, and the Homos at Disney are to Blame!

Movie Review

Christian pastors thought their tireless efforts to warn Americans about the carefully disguised homosexual agenda targeting toddlers through Disney cartoons was working. They thought that since President George W. Bush, a devout Christian who attends a Bible church regularly and believes in the same three-headed God (Father, Son, and flying side-kick, The Holy Ghost) took office, that Americans were finally waking up. Our pastors took for granted that Americans understood that Jesus is not above sending little children straight to Hell for watching cartoons. It wasn't until Pastor Deacon Fred heard that millions of American children were being lured like zombies in a trance to see the new Disney film, Finding Nemo, that he decided to speak out against it.

Walt Disney would be spinning in his grave if he knew his animation studios were full of giggling homosexuals, doodling and talking about silly colors and little fishies for their latest film," said Pastor Deacon Fred last Sunday. "But as we all know, Walt Disney never made it to Heaven. Although he hated Jews almost as much as the Apostle Paul did, he never took the time to accept Jesus Christ as his personal savior. So Mr. Disney is burning in Hell right now and God melted his eyes right out of his head. The poor fellow can't even see that his wholesome empire of family entertainment is overrun by prancing homos, skipping through its echoey corridors like clomping herds of wild ponies."

"Some folks don't think they need Pastors like myself to tell them what to think, but apparently they do, otherwise, they wouldn't be letting their children keep seeing these disgusting Disney cartoons," continued Pastor. "Just in case you ain't a Christian person, and can't see that Satan and the damn liberals and homos are behind just about everything that is wrong with this country, let me clue you in. The movie, Finding Nemo incorporates an exaggerated use of unnecessarily bright colors, and hues (especially pink and yellow). As True Christians™, we know that these colors are like a trail of poop leading right up to the rabbit hole of homosexuality. Do they take us for fools? I've been to the fishing hole before, my friends - and I've never had a tug on my line from any orange or yellow striped demon possessed looking fish. Everyone knows that fish are green! Every time I see a commercial for this movie, it makes me want to scream and smack my giggling little grandson in the head! And it wouldn't be my fault if I did smack him! It's them damned homos who forced me to do it! Praise the sweet name of Jesus!"

"Since I don't have to lift up a sewer lid, to know it stinks down there - I also don't have to see movies to know that they are about. Aside from the homosexual cartoonist's calling card of high budget glitz and glamour that accompanies each new Disney/Pixar release, there is a more sinister agenda at work here. This film is about a young fish boy from a single family fish home. He rightly runs away after finding out his daddy fish is a flopping homosexual. His daddy fish wants him to come back home and live with his boyfriend! If that isn't enough to make you throw up, there's more. This homo-fish intends to marry outside of his own fish race by taking up residence with a male blow fish. So what we have is two things going on. The writers of the film want children who view it to accept homosexuality as normal, and also to turn a blind eye to mixed marriages - or God forbid, marriage between the species, which is bestiality, or in this case aquaticality. Friends, the homos are getting our kids so confused and mixed up by this nonsense, that if you aren't shocked, I question your salvation! You mark my words, before you know it, your own son will be dying his hair orange and having sex with a dolphin - and you will be forced by law to accept their relationship as normal. I can't even continue with this, because frankly it makes me physically ill to even think about it."

After speaking, Pastor Deacon Fred pulled out an aquarium full of fish from behind his pulpit and overturned it onto the table of Holy Sacrament. "This is what I think of Finding Nemo!" he bellowed. "Damned homosexual fishes!" The congregation stood up and cheered as ladies from the choir came down to stomp their heels into the dozens of fish flopping around on the floor. One child was punished for trying to save a fish by throwing it into the baptismal pool. Church members with active aquariums voluntarily drained them as soon as they got home. Pastor Deacon Fred is asking all Baptist ministers to warn their parishioners about the new Disney film, Finding Nemo - and also to overturn aquariums in public as a sign of protest.

ashanthi said...

Sittingnut what is going on - please tell me - what has happened^&**^&^&*

dextr said...

umm. i dont live in brisbane man. i dunno how much u noe abt oz but queensland is like sooooo far away frm meltown....

happy t4011ing.

^_^