Monday, November 21, 2005

what mahinda buffalo would do if he has any sense

first he would have to understand what his situation really is.

that means admitting to himself that,

1. ltte wanted him in power in the belief that he is a weak leader beholden to sinhala buddhist extremist like jvp and jhu, and in case of war (provoked by them but blamed on him) world sympathy will come their way while in the south economy will collapse due to bad policies.

2. that jvp and lot of others are under the impression that they can manipulate him and get what they want. in jvp's case that means strengthening their party using state resources while slowly eroding slfp before bailing out to oust the government and destroy the slfp.

3. government is basically broke

4. investors and private sector believes him to be a socialist with the dimmest idea about how a economy in the modern world works and expect total collapse or slow but accelerating decline of the economy.

5. minorities everywhere(from muslims to christians) believes him to be under the thumb of sinhala buddhist extremists and will start a war in addition to trampling on their basic rights.

6. some in the slfp did not want him to win

his first priority must be to get rid of these impressions(unless they are actual facts which is probably the case).

he should,

1. give no opportunity to ltte to go back to war.
tell everybody that he is for very high degree of devolution of power. get the norwegians down and send them (on perhaps useless) missions to the tigers repeatedly.
at the same time emphasize that tigers acted against the tamil ppl and disenfranchised them in last election and get the foreign governments to condemn that
third, arm the karuna faction and get them to attack as many ltte cadres in the east as possible but never get the army or the stf involved. make the ltte see what they will lose in case of real war.

2.appoint a centrist opposed to jvp as the prime minister and if there are unp defections get some in to cabinet in prominent positions. release s.b. to encourage defections and generally make trouble for unp.

3.make jvp realize who is the boss immediately. give them ministries, but ones he wants, not ones they demand. he should give them some really troublesome ministries like transport or health. he should also appoint mixed teams to ministries, say a slfp minister with a jvp deputy minister and not allow jvp to monopolize some ministries like the agriculture. they will not be in a position to refuse so soon after the election without losing face. if buffalo obeys the jvp now, he will be completely under the jvp in 3 months time.

4. stick with the budget presented at the beginning of the month as much as possible (buffalo already missed a good opportunity to reassure the investors by saying he will present a new budget with his buffalo 'chinthanaya' instead- that budget has some ideas as to cutting ruinous subsides (for fuel etc.) that would make the government's financial position much stable and he could have blamed the ill effects on ordinary ppl on cbk.)
stick with the current finance minister(in spite of his lukewarm support during the election) and treasury secretory. they are not complete idiots.

5. cut the cabinet to 20, that way ppl he is forced to demote, bc of not supporting him, will not secretly hold grudges while still ministers, as they will know same thing happened to lot of others as well and the situation is clear to all. it will definitely save money

6. give every thing the minorities demand that can be given. get cwc and slmc in to government. tell the jhu to get lost with the anti conversion bill. buffalo really do not need them and most of the jhu monks can after all be bought with money.

7. do not dissolve parliament. that will not increase the no of upfa mps. only the jhu seats will get split between the upfa and unp. but jvp will gain inside the upfa.

if he really does most of these things, he may even last more than one year with real power and i might stop calling him a buffalo. unfortunately he is a real buffalo so he won't.
so expect him to get lame soon.


Aghast said...

Why exactly should Mahinda repeat Ranil's mistakes? Ranil's policies have totally failed.

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Keshi said...

like I said....Mahinda or Ranil, SL is at a loss...


Jack Point said...

Aghast says Ranil's policies failed.

We are running today because of the rescue work done in 2001-2003.

The policies of the Chintanaya were tried between 1956-1965 (Mahinda himself made reference to the revolution of 1956) and 1970-1977. Similar policies are srill at work only in North korea, Burma, Zimbabwe and Cuba.

Mahinda is not in touch with reality and neither are his advisors, which is a real worry. He wants to present a new budget and seems to be under the impression that there is money to pay for all the subsidies and the grand plans of state expansion.

All Nivard Caraal could moan about was that he was disappointed by the reaction of the stock market and he claimed thant they were "business friendly". Apparently, the fact that tehy coudl have done something concrete to calm fears by issuing a statement of clear policy apparently never entered his head.

He appears to hacve given no though whatsoever as to what needs to be done and what can be done.

Golgi Apparatus said...

The Christian fundos and the Al Quaeda sympathisers in Sri Lanka can blow it out of their ass because Ratnasiri Wikremanayake, a Sinhalese Buddhist nationalist has been apparently appointed Prime Minister of Sri Lanka.

POOR SITTING NUT! Grab that cross and start praying!

Golgi Apparatus said...

A former General Secretary of the SLFP, Wickremanayake has been an outspoken advocate of the Sinhala-Buddhist cause. He is a hawk in matters concerning the LTTE. As the Buddha Sasana Minister in the last administration, he introduced a bill to ban forcible and fraudulent conversion of poor Buddhists and Hindus to Christianity by evangelical groups, most of whom are foreign funded. An experienced administrator, he has held important ministerial portfolios like Public Administration, Home Affairs and Plantations, earlier.,000500020002.htm

Anonymous said...

I don't think you can look at the results of this presidential election and to determine how many seats the ruling party will get if they call a general election.The main opposition party is demoralised and the new president is likely to enjoy a "honeymoon period" with the electorate. If a general election is called soon, all those who voted for His Excellency President Mahinda Rajapaksha wil go to the voting booths with great enthusiasm while a significant number of those who voted for the honourable Ranil Wickramasingha willnot bother to vote.
So the ruling coalition is likely to increase the number of seats it has. On top of that they will have the option of not
calling any major election for 6 years whearas they will have to call a general election within 4 and a half years if the
president doesn't disolve parliament soon.
But to take advangate of his victory at the just concluded presidential election the president will have to act fast.
His popularity is likely to melt sooner than ice in sunny day !

On the other hand, calling a general election now would force the SLFP to reckon with certain harsh truths. It's likely that the JVP will bargain hard given that the president owes them so much for the work they did to elect him.

Hopefully he will call a general election soon. Otherwise if a general election is called in 4 and a half years and the UNP wins that election it'll face the same situation it faced after the general election of 2001.

t4011 said...

Hehhe.. so much for a centrist PM.

t4011 said...

Mahinda can't nor won't fuck around with the JVP/JHU. They don't really need to be in the government side or have portfolios whereas Mahinda desperately needs them to be in his side.

The Stock market crash (if it can be called that) was to be expected and is not at all permenant. The same thing happened in 2003 and 2004.

Wake up and smell the roses (or VP's smelly feet). You lost fuckers.


T4011 said...

Anyway, the Sinhalese didn't elect him to do what these Libertarian fuckwits say. Your man (man?) will be unemployed by tomorrow.


Fuck off. We won.

Anonymous said...

if all the mahinda supporters simply said they are racists, and don't want minority opinions, instead of talking about what man won, I think they would appear being a bit more sensible than they appear now.

Equal Opportunities said...

if all the mahinda supporters simply said they are racists, and don't want minority opinions, instead of talking about what man won, I think they would appear being a bit more sensible than they appear now.

sittingnut said...

jack point:
you are right. if not for ranil's government from 2001 sri lanka will be now in great trouble. we will see what was going to happen then actually happening soon.

buffalo herd:
I don't think you can look at the results of this presidential election and to determine how many seats the ruling party will get if they call a general election. - as i said, under our pr system it does not matter if you increase the votes from 55% to 65% in a district, you end up with the same no of mps. it matters only if you, say increase the votes from 45% to 55%, in that case you get the bonus seat as the largest party, but upfa already has them.

The Stock market crash (if it can be called that) was to be expected and is not at all permenant(sic). The same thing happened in 2003 and 2004. - yes in 1994 too . and that time it stayed down for 6 years.

As the Buddha Sasana Minister in the last administration, he introduced a bill to ban forcible and fraudulent conversion of poor Buddhists and Hindus to Christianity by evangelical groups - and he was roundly criticized for diluting the jhu's own bill by 'sinhala buddhists.'. that part you forgot.

btw ltte won, sl lost and buffalo herd is happy for a day or two.

i do not pray, i get things done unlike you or your buffalo.

Keshi said...

I cant u'stand why religion has to come into this topic...thats where our superiors in SL make mistakes too!


Anonymous said...

Firstly I am not a part of any herd. I voted against the socialists! (I had even said that the president’s popularity will melt faster than ice on a sunny day.)
What I said concerning what would happen if a general election were to be called was my objective assessment.

as i said, under our pr system it does not matter if you increase the votes from 55% to 65% in a district, you end up with the same no of mps. it matters only if you, say increase the votes from 45% to 55%

This is just plain not true. Under our electoral system the largest party gets a “bonus seat” in every district. All the other seats of each district will be divided in proportion to the votes each party has obtained in each district. While increasing the vote share from 45% to 55% will probably mean that the concerned party will increase the number of seats it has to a great extent by obtaining the bonus seats, an increase from 55% to 65% will also lead to a gain in the number of seats (Though to a lesser extent).In Colombo and Gampaha that would lead to a gain of 2 seats. In places like Kandy, Kurunagella, Kalutera etc. (In other words where there are roughly 10 seats in the district) that should lead to an increase of 1 seat. In the case of smaller districts, such an increase will lead to an increase of seats in some of the districts while the number of seats in the other districts will remain unchanged. Also, the 29 “national list” seats are divided up strictly in proportion to the number of votes each party has obtained in the whole country. Increasing the total number of votes from 55% to 65% would lead to a gain of 3 national list seats.

As I said earlier, if an election is called now the UPFA supporters will vote with great enthusiasm because they are still celebrating their victory while some of those who voted for the UNP will not bother to vote because they know that the UNP doesn’t stand a chance to win.(That explains how the UPFA managed to capture power in the central provincial council at the PC elections held soon after the 2004 general election even though the UNP had won Kandy and Nuwera Eliya districts with huge margins in the previously held general election.) That’s why I said that you cannot use the results of the just concluded presidential election to extrapolate the number of seats the UPFA would have got if they call a general election now.

Anonymous said...

In 2001, inflation was around 15% and increasing rapidly, economic growth had turned negative, foreign reserves were drying up rapidly while government debt was increasing rapidly. Ordinary people felt the effects of that bleak economy when construction workers were out of work and taxi drivers couldn’t find hires.
Just imagine what would have happened if those trends continued.
This is what Ranil had to deal with then he took power in 2001. He had to reverse the rapid decline of the economy and to do that he took steps to ensure that government spending was placed under tight discipline.
If he hadn’t done that, the economy would have gone down hill further.
Ranil’s policies didn’t faile. In 2001 the economy was a sinking ship. Ranil succeeded in rescuing that ship.
Unfortunately the voters of this country failed. They failed to comprehend reality and see through the lies of Wimal Weerawansa and his comrades. The electorate has proven that it has a very short memory and isn’t capable of thinking.
The only gratitude Ranil got was being booted out of government in 2004 and out of politics in 2005.
The electorate said –
“Thanks a lot Ranil. You worked hard and saved this ship from sinking. But that’s all we expect from you and from now on we’ll pretend not to know what you did for us. What we want is people like Wimal Weerawansa who entertain us. We enjoy his SCREAMS and his fancy stories and his conspiracy theories. You are boring! We’d prefer somebody with a red shawl around his neck!!! ”

Unfortunately the voting public have proven yet again that they will always go with fancy nationalist/socialist rhetoric so long as the economy hasn’t deteriorated to the point where taxi drivers don’t get hires and construction workers can’t find work. They’ll wait till the economy is crawling on it’s knees (like in 2001) to elect a politician who has a sound comprehension of reality rather than those with fancy nationalist/socialist slogans.
As in all things in life, people will have to face the consequence of their foolish decisions. It will not take long for inflation to reach 25% for the exchange rate to spiral downward and for the economy to stagnate (or worse). That’s because the policies that led to the bleak economic situation that existed in 2001 are contained in an amplified form in “Mahinda Chinthena”. On top of that Prabhakaran will probably want to resume the war (why else would he ensure the UPFA candidate’s victory by calling for a boycott) and the people will discover that the war mongers they elected aren’t even competent enough to fight a war!
When the ship starts sinking again, the people should be told not to grumble and not to cry. They should be told bluntly that the ship is sinking again because of the ingratitude they showed to the leader who saved the sri lankan economy from collapsing - Ranil Wickramasingha. They should be told it is because they are foolish enough and corrupt enough to prefer the “Sobaneya” of a red shawl, fancy nationalist/socialist rhetoric and the lies, conspiracy theories and SCREAMS of people like Wimal Weerawansa Sahodereya. They should be told that the ship is sinking because they are not capable of instinctively identifying the real leadership that Ranil offered when the ship was no yet sinking!

Keshi said...

goshh everyone is so good at taking their own sides but no one is really doing anything abt it...:) thats the biggest problem in SL.


sittingnut said...

anon at 10.47 on 22nd , and 2.26 on 21st:

sorry about including you in the herd. :-( how about using a name for posting?

some good points you make with regard to election. i still think that no of mps for upfa won't go up except for getting part of jhu mps. why? i will probably write a full post about it soon and address in detail your points. at the moment i will only say that main comparison is with the 2004 general election, whether they can surpass those vote percentages in a significant way (significant enough to have a effect on or pr system) as to increase the no of mp is the question.

anon at 12.48 on 22nd.
spot on man. good comment.
you should get a blog. that way you do not have to post the same comment on lot of other blogs as you did with this. :-) but you are free to comment whatever you want here without any restrictions.

you are right as usual. :-)

Capitalist said...

Disgusting !
How can they claim that they are fighting for the rights of anybody ? !!!

LTTE cadres chopped the hand of the voter from Kilinochchi

Hope this is not true !

the1truecoolguy said...

but no one is really doing anything abt it...:) thats the biggest problem in SL.

Keshi, you're absolutely right!! I believe this "I can't be bothered attitude" is the core of most of SL's problems. :(

Jack Point said...

After a week of inaction the President made a statement in parliament, but it apparently contained little more than rhetoric.

The markets have continued to fall, awaiting for a statement by the King Maker, Prabakaran tomorrow.

sittingnut said...

yes it's disgusting
but until reputed news service confirms this i would be skeptical

jack point:
yes we are reduced to that. fellow elected the buffalo. he will decide what happens next.

thanks for dropping by:-)

Anonymous said...

This is what you are ...
Get a life..

Capitalist said...

Apparently the hand chopping story may not be true.
Sorry about the false alarm !

There is a good analysis about this story in Nittewa