most observers including myself expect tamils to vote for ranil ,and with some reason too. a victory for mahinda would mean going back, to war maybe, or more likely to more of present stalemate and low intensity war. result will be bad for sri lanka but especially for the northeast tamils. so if they think about their own well being they do not have much choice.
as for the ltte, things get more complicated. to some people in the ltte leadership, war in itself or the present stalemate may not seem bad at all. contrary to what most people in the south believe ceasefire has in fact weakened the ltte. it's discipline is going overboard, cadres are getting increasingly corrupt and recruitment is falling, in this relatively peaceful atmosphere. this is to be expected. all authoritarian organizations need a high intensity struggle to remain cohesive. of course ltte can over time evolve in to a more democratic political party but that would entail the present leadership giving up some of its powers and dictatorial ambitions. this is still possible, south asian political history is filled with almost dictators getting their way without being homicidal maniacs. mr velupillai prabhakaran has to decide whether he chooses to follow that path in the future or not. problem is he may be incapable of doing this. now is the time to decide.
that doesn't mean ltte has to endorse ranil. given that tough negotiations will have to take place in the future they will probably be better off and ranil will also be better off if they stay neutral. but they should definitely not endorse a election boycott or in any way hinder the ordinary tamils from voting in the election.
so what does all those conflicting signals that seem to be coming from the ltte during the last few days mean. are they deliberately willing a mahinda victory by starting a boycott? what do they hope to achieve by that? if they think they will be able to occupy moral high ground and get international sympathy in the event mahinda wins and starts a war, they are sadly mistaken. reality will be the opposite and ltte will once again be considered terrorists in a world that abhors terrorists.
a ltte backed boycott at this stage can mean only one thing: ltte leadership has decided against peace and is for war. period.
war would mean suffering all around. that is why ltte and all those who can influence it should not let it come to that.
time to decide.
9 comments:
(sinhala buddhists compromise around 70% of the total electorate)
I'd say that's a rather strong allegation, unless you meant comprise around 70% of the electorate.
:)
A few things:
I can't see how the ltte will democratise as long as prabhakaran and pottu head are alive. Surely if pb comes out india(raw) will get him if they can beat any of the disgruntled locals to it.
The average lifetime of a terrorist struggle is supposed to be about 20 years, so the possibility of war is real.
If the UTHR(J) are correct and the intelligence wing is on the rise at the expense of the political wing isn't this is a bad sign for their long term survival? I remember reading (can't recall where) that this signals start of the demise for militaristic organizations.
Oh, and all this noise overseas about the coming struggle for the final confrontation, just rhetoric ?
dulan thanks! actually my posts are full of such spelling mistakes and i won't even mention the grammar. i am generally too lazy and too busy to edit them. my apologies to everyone. :-)
ivap:
i think we should not apply generalized average rules to terrorist struggles.
yes ltte has to choose soon, prabhakaran has to decide whether he wants to die in some bunker as a terrorist leader with almost unlimited power within a increasingly marginalized organization or as a very powerful regional politician who is capable of tolerating some dissent.
btw i am very skeptical of india's military and intelligence abilities if pb can escape sl forces he can escape indian ones.
LTTE isnt looking for peace...just power through bloodshed, as any terrorist would do..
People have to realise that there can never be peace through bloodshed...only then will we march forward for peace...
Keshi.
i think we should not apply generalized average rules to terrorist struggles.
I have more faith in the human condition affecting terror groups too. So far it's not showing up anything unexpected. I'll reserve my judgment on that for the future.
Where is the evidence that the ceasefire has weakened the LTTE, could you please point me towards some news items that corroborate this?
From what I've read it appears the LTTE has managed to infiltrate Colombo, assassinate its rivals and opponents with impunity, strengthen its parallel administration AND acquire an air wing, not exactly signs of weakness.
Prabha is unlikely to choose a negotiated settlement simply because that would mean his end as a leader and the absolute power he enjoys now. In the last 20 years of the conflict, our leaders have come and gone, but Prabha has remained constant, and he is unlikely to give that up.
What would probably work is continuing to marginalize the LTTE by capturing the hearts and minds of the Tamil population of the N/E. Whether that is possible with the quality of governance either of the two presidential candidates offers is another question. This is also made more difficult by the Diaspora and those in Sri Lanka who think to sing the praises of the LTTE is the ‘in thing’ to do now.
In the end it would probably take a military solution to finish Prabha and his cohorts off simply because as Chamberlain discovered it is impossible to negotiate with evil. Hopefully by the time that becomes necessary the LTTE would have become such a marginalized outfit, the common Tamil, Sinhala and Muslim people in the N/E would not have to suffer.
naren:
Where is the evidence that the ceasefire has weakened the LTTE - what is the karuna group? can ltte operate at all in some areas they controlled earlier in the east? has not there been tamil civilian protests against ltte? if you search sri lankan news sites for these things you will find the news items you want. other than that they seems to have lost the ability to take on high profile targets on their own (run out of suicide bombers?) and have started to outsource the assassination business.
it appears the LTTE has managed to infiltrate Colombo, assassinate its rivals and opponents with impunity, strengthen its parallel administration AND acquire an air wing, not exactly signs of weakness - they did all that before cfa too.
as for prabha's present mindset that can only be read from his actions. if there is a boycott we will know.
i think cfa itself did more than any thing else in 'capturing the hearts and minds of the Tamil population'. so we need to go in that direction.
This is also made more difficult by the Diaspora and those in Sri Lanka who think to sing the praises of the LTTE is the ‘in thing’ to do now.- actually large sections of diasporas of both sides are more extreme than most people in sl. i have stated why elsewhere. btw are you living outside of sl?
Hopefully by the time that becomes necessary the LTTE would have become such a marginalized outfit,- so you admit ltte is becoming increasingly marginalized in the present relatively peaceful atmosphere?
as for military solutions are you in the army? if not why?
keshi:
People have to realise that there can never be peace through bloodshed - yes but how to make them realize that?
ashathi:
you are right as always.
Post a Comment