Saturday, November 19, 2005

so why did ranil lose? and buffalo win?

at the moment few theories are flying about.

in a mostly positive forward looking post, this is what indi has to say,

Ranil lost not because his policies are bad or unsuccessful, but because they simply weren’t communicated. He lacked the language and frames to structure his ideas, so his accomplishments just hung in the air... UNP had no talking points, no message discipline, no coherent branding, and no comprehensible theme. Part of this is because the media unit is rephrehensibly bad and Ranil isn’t the most brandable of candidates. Moreso, it’s because there is no intellectual infrastructure to support his policies...'

in unp's own blog some (moderated) comments place the blame on branch organizers who expected a easy win because of minority support and thus neglected basic campaigning work.

but i have to disagree, numbers do not support both these arguments, as i have already commented elsewhere unp's vote tally increased in this election from 40.39% in 2004(including slmc and ucpf) to 48.4% (by 8.01% , 952,105 in votes) that is a very very good swing. both the unp(in 2000 to 2001) and the upfa (in 2001 to 2004) were able to change governments using a 7.5% or less swings in votes.

in my scenario calculation before the election, i put forward what i thought could be the minimum requirements for ranil to win. three of the requirements were 2.5% swing from upfa, additional 1.5% from ppl who stayed away in 2004, and a third of jhu vote(i.e.2% from total 6%) going to unp. in other words a addition of 6% to the unp total in the south. in a situation where 75% of the 2004 tna voters stayed away that would have been enough for a win.

but that crucial fourth requirement did not materialize 25% of tna voter did not vote. in most northern polling divisions less than 0.1% voted. i thought i was being conservative when i included only 25% (based on the fact over 30% voted in the postal voting held last week) but i was wrong.

most of the tamils in north decided to follow ltte's wishes of their own free will. may be they were afraid for their lives as some ppl argue, but while we can excuse ppl living in ltte controlled areas, we have no such excuse for ppl living in government controlled areas. they just obeyed the ltte because of some vague fears quite forgetting that there is security in large numbers. even if ltte killed a few afterwards using its clandestine units that operate in those areas, most had nothing to fear seriously. they would have done better to reflect on the consequences and deaths in a restarted war.
ppl who do not exercise or demand their rights do not deserve them. ppl in the south who voted in 1988 election inspite of jvp boycott backed up by real killings showed how real democrats should act on such a occasion.

so the main reason why ranil wickremasinghe was defeated and mahinda rajapakse the buffalo( i will continue to refer to him that way in the future till he gets lame) won is clear, ltte wanted it that way and tamils in northeast obliged.

so why does ltte want the buffalo as president?

is it because they want a weak leader in the south ? probably, and they have achieved it. buffalo has to depend on the jvp and jhu even more than cbk. with those ppl in government it will never be strong

is it because they expect the buffalo to start a war? so that
1, ltte leadership can get a firmer control of their organization that has been slowly slipping through their fingers?
2, so that ltte can get the sympathy of international community and the various peacenik ngos?
well they won't get that. government is more or less broke so mahinda can't start a war even if he wanted to. ltte will have to do that by large scale provocations, which i expect them to do after 27th. but that will mean they will have to do without the sympathy and probably at the risk of getting more and more of it's front organizations getting banned in more and more countries for helping terrorists.
nor will they be able to maintain their bases in most of the east, government backed karuna faction will have a field day.

is it because of some remarks by milinda moragoda and navin dissnayake as alleged by some?
that is certainly not the case. what they said ( that ltte is trapped in the peace process and is getting progressively weaker and unp planned that in advance ) was common knowledge to those who were interested in the peace talks. one intention of the the interim administration and the p-toms etc. was the desire to make the ltte a dependent of the government, or failing that of the international community, for money. ltte knew that too, it's very clear from their own proposal for these structures. maybe only jvp, jhu and buffalo were clueless.

whatever the exact (and imo highly dicey) reason, we will know soon enough, as the ltte has only few options left.

did ranil made a mistake by appealing to all communities, especially the tamils and running on a peace platform? no, imo. after all even without the ltte and it's followers he got 48.4% of the vote. and buffalo won by just 28,600 odd majority and a 181,000 lead.
that a slim majority in south and almost all ppl in the north chose war, does not make it the wrong policy. war is always bad policy in my book.

unfortunately, most ppl decided in favor of war, on their own free will, at the ltte's urging and elected the president ltte wanted. they will get what they deserve.

23 comments:

ashanthi said...

mate - I think you should listen to Ivap - but I do understand that you are angry...

A few things ....
why the 27th?
Mahinda is very weak & a thicko - certainly he's no Einstein. Buffalo is appropriate - a slow moving smelly bovine hoofed horned twat... How about we name him Buffalo Mo ...
I think you are totally overestimating the Karuna group

Are you too grumpy to take up my nomination of you (along with Ivap, Morq, Yaroo & yours truly) as the next party to lead our country out of the dark ages & to freedom? C'mon - cheer up machan. You're still young - you need to get more involved & you can.

T4011 said...

33 aint young.

68lives said...

BREAKING NEWS!!!!!

Colombo Churches are holding a midnight prayer vigil on November 21 outside the Lake House Bookshop. True Christians across Colombo will be practicing civil disobedience as we block the entrances of every major bookstore in the city. We are calling upon all believers everywhere to take up the cross of Christ and flop your body onto the pavement or lock arms with your brethren to form a love link in front of a bookstore to prevent ignorant unsaved people from purchasing Satan's new Harry Potter book: The Half-Blood Prince. If you see anyone with this book in hand, shout, "Fire on you! in the name of Jesus!" Snatch the book from them, toss it to another Christian brother or sister and put flame to it as quickly as possible. Make sure you hand the person a Bible to replace the Half-Blood Prince and tell them to read that instead.

ddm said...

68 lives - Do we get a refund for the burnt potter book?

sittingnut said...

ashanthi, somethings are facts.
and one fact is that ltte and its followers elected the buffalo mo. :-)

33 is not young, a fact too. good point :-)

manyname:
do get a life.
as far as sri lanka is concerned, it is those bald fellows in saffron that engage is book burnings, literally. then they go on to burn churches, mosques and kovils. go see the police reports, when you come up from australia, to join the army.
frustration is the cause i think. they are so stupid that they can't even use the internet to trash other ppls blogs to show their stupidity like you. buffalo will frustrate them more, so expect more book burnings etc. in the future.

Ananthan said...

Have you been to the government controlled areas of Jaffna? How can you comment on the motivations of the people in areas under SLA control there?

How can you make conclusions about the true consequences from the tigers without knowing what their influence was (in SLA controlled areas and on relatives in their own areas)?

Regardless of what the actual threat might have been, you dont seem to appreciate the psychological threat and disaffection there.

These people have lived under threat from various sides for over two decades. When the conflict starts it is them who bear the brunt of it, not the voters you keep alluding to in the south who had the luxury of protesting in the 80's. You don't seem to respect what they have been through or respect the full scope of bullshit that's been thrown at them over the course of this thing... until you do, you should ease up on blaming them for this.

ashanthi said...

sittingnut - i am overyjoyed to see you smile again
::-- ))

ananthan has made some very good points, you must agree :-?

we need to put ourselves in other peoples shoes - decades of neglect have resulted in this election

Yaaro said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Yaaro said...

Sittingnut- I have to agree with Ananthan on this. There is no such word as "controlled" and "uncontrolled" areas in the LTTE dictionary. Personally, I have family friends if not far relatives in so called SLA government areas and I've been there a couple of times in the past. I am not implying that you know less about the situation there because you haven't been there. It's just that it's not something you can see from the outside. As a Tamil, you'd know who works for the LTTE and who doesn't in those areas and trust me they are all over. They made visits the night before the elections “asking” people to boycott the elections in SLA controlled areas (like abroad, where they go around bullying people into giving money-not all of them of course. People do volunteer). They couldn’t have done it their usual way - standing around with guns and threatening them like they did in their areas. Consequences of going against their wishes . . . I don’t even want to comment on that. It’s a tough life up there Suranga and it’s certainly not as easy as you make it sound to be. Just get up one morning and go to the polling booth to cast your vote. Certainly not that simple. As much as I respect the way you see the whole problem Suranga, I think it's WRONG to blame these Tamils solely for Ranil’s loss.

“all ppl in the north chose war” – A very harsh accusation. Do you by any chance think that these innocent people want to go through what they’ve been going through all these years. Running into the bunker every two hours. Losing a family member whilst doing so. See them being gunned down and not being able to do anything about it. Being bombed (by of course both the LTTE and the army) every hour or so. It’s not a carnival you know, for them to want it back again.

Having said all this, heart of hearts I was hoping that there’d be some people who’d pluck the courage to go and vote. I guess somethings are not worth hoping for.

ashanthi said...

well I think we are now getting to the nitty gritty - i think yaaro has hit the nail on the head, she's a smart cookie

s/nut you are 33, there's a 19 yr old Taurean called cc - he's left a comment on yaaro's blog & he's using some quite fatalistic language - I'd like you to read his comments & i would then like you to be like your mother & lead by example.

we have nothing to win if we become divided - the UNP should not have taken the Tamil vote for granted - it was arrogant

Anonymous said...

Dont call our president buffalo, What do you call LTTE leader, Bush and blair

read this before writing mud

http://www.mahinda4srilanka.org/uniportal/web/index.asp?mi=79&xp=2368&xi=3261&xl=3&o=1&t=0

Anonymous said...

So you all are the UNP mud team
ashanthi is a fake identity. UNP mud team has many names.

Anonymous said...

Lastnode
Morquendi
the1truecoolguy
sittingnut
Dr. Politics

who else in UNP mud team.

68lives said...

DDM.... no you only get a Bible in return for your burnt potter book!

********************************
********************************
MORE BREAKING NEWS!!!!!
********************************
********************************

Book Burning: A True-Christian Tradition

The burning of books is nothing new to True Christians. We invented the practice over two-thousand years ago as a way to promote our faith in the Lord Jesus. In the early days of Christianity, when new believers in Christ were converted, they were naturally moved by the Holy Spirit to grab as many books as they could and pitch them into a fire. Unlike the sissy "Jesus is Love" fake-Christians (whom both the Lord Jesus and we loathe) we have running around today, the early followers of Christ were never ashamed to burn books. In fact, if you ever find yourself being grateful for the destruction of most of the works of pagan nincompoops like Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle, you have a Christian to thank! In the Book of Acts we learn that anyone who wants to follow Jesus, should get ready to start burning books at the drop of a hat. The Book of Acts teaches us that burning someone's books is a great way spread God's word.

"Many of them also which used curious arts brought their books together and burned them before all men and they counted the price of them and found it fifty thousand pieces of silver. So mightily grew the word of God and prevailed." Acts 19:19-20

A spiritual awakening is sweeping across Sri Lanka. One of the great signs that the Holy Spirit is moving in the hearts and souls of True Christians is our glorious and sacred return to the practice of book burning. Secular humanists and Atheists have spent hundreds of years trying to make "book burners" look bad. Oftentimes the media paints a terrible image of book burners. "They make us out to look like fanatics," said one Christian.

The truth is, burning a book is one of the most loving things a Christian could do for a person they really care about. Churches in Colombo are proud to be sponsoring Sri Lanka's Largest Book Burning on Satan's Birthday. This will be the third consecutive year we have held the event. Last time, we had 152,800 Sri Lankan Christians show up for the event. We burned over 3.4 million books! That's right! Don't let the numbers dissuade you from holding a book burning at your local church. Thousands of churches in Sri Lanka have collected millions of Harry Potter books to be burned that very night. As a Christian, you should be eager to participate in this Bible based tradition. Burning books just like the first Christians did in New Testament is a great way to say "no" to Satan and "yes" to Jesus.

As most Christians already know, the Harry Potter book series is the most evil and dangerous set of books to be released this century. "The Potter series is worse than pornography. The books are even more dangerous than the Satanic Bible," reports Pastor Arnold Perera, "At least with the Satanic Bible, young people know that the book was written by Satan. The Devil just changed his name to J.K. Rowling this time." The release of the fifth book in the Harry Potter series has been delayed because Christians have been praying to God that he will send angels to scramble Satan's brain and force him to admit Rowling's spent body to a mental hospital so that the whole series will never be completed.

The Truly Saved all across Sri Lanka are calling upon the name of Jesus to decrease the number of Harry Potter books currently circulating in Sri Lanka by at least 70%. "We're giving True Christian® school children the Biblical authority to remove these evil books from their school libraries, bookstores, homes, grocery stores, and anywhere they find them," said Pastor Arnold Perera. "All they need to say is, Jesus wants me to take this book! Friends, let's help this great Country return to it's True Christian® roots. Wont' you please set up a Holy Ghost book fire at your local church on Satan's Birthday? Thank you."

sittingnut said...

ananthan:
Have you been to the government controlled areas of Jaffna? - yes.
How can you comment on the motivations of the people in areas under SLA control there? - why not? pl explain.
luxury of protesting in the 80's - if real threat of getting killed was a luxury, what do you call the vague threats with no implementation in north and east?
How can you make conclusions about the true consequences from the tigers without knowing what their influence was (in SLA controlled areas and on relatives in their own areas)? - vague indeed the threats were, it seems from that statement.
When the conflict starts it is them who bear the brunt of it - yes. that is why they should have voted, they should have weighed the vague threats against real consequences as i said in the main post.

yaaro:
There is no such word as "controlled" and "uncontrolled" areas in the LTTE dictionary. - maybe, but they signed on the cfa which has them. and the ltte's control differs according to the area.
It’s a tough life up there Suranga and it’s certainly not as easy as you make it sound to be - i never said being brave was easy. life is tough, but then it's always easy to have a living death.

ashanthi:
nitty gritty indeed.
the UNP should not have taken the Tamil vote for granted - it was arrogant- the arrogant have been punished. what about the cowardly? may be they too have already received their punishment?


'cowards die many times before their deaths'
-william shakespeare, julius caesar

history is not something in history books, ppl make history everyday.

--
anon:
mahinda is a buffalo if you don't get it, you are one too. so how did you type with whatever you have at the end of the legs?

manynames:
'breaking' news is a tradition? where do you live? in stone age like jhu monks?

ashanthi said...

what's the bloody story about ashanthi being a fake identity????

ok - so i used to be anon, anon anon, anon de non de non - wolf mother - but i am now ashanthi... I'm as much real on this blog as anyone else..#$@%#$%$%^*%&^???

s/nut - we need to talk - let's take a breather & we will get back to this over at my blog...

till then remember - without you or me there will NEVER be peace in our country

68lives said...

Please don't read Harry Potter books! They are evil.

Pray that the spirit of the Holy Ghost will fill the hearts and minds of the unbelievers and that they will cast way the evil that is residing in their hearts. Pray that Sri Lanka will be free of the evil of Harry Potter books. Pray that Sri Lanka will be free of heathens and pagans. Pray that every knee will be bent for the Good Lord. In Jesus' Holy Name, Amen.

T4011 said...

Stop whining now. You lost. Deal with it.

Yaaro said...

s/nut- "vague threats "- unfortunately, I don't think i've given you a clear picture of what you've called "vague" threats. I don't see the point in dwelling into it. But I wish i could take you as a tamil to Jaffna for you to find out what exactly these "vague" threats are. It's not something you can learn by visiting Jaffna for a week or so. It probably will take a few years to recognise the consequences of not giving into these vague threats.
I think i'll stop rambling about it and will move on. We should all take up Ashanthi's suggestion and get into politcis! I am tempted.

ashanthi said...

that's my girl yaaro - c'mon s/nut how about it, you can lead the way

I reckon young cc should be given a portfolio too - hmm how about - Youth Minister, certainly this is where are future lies

sittingnut said...

troll for buffalo:
sri lanka lost, foreigner like you do not get it.
to deal with it we must get to the reason why. read the post.

yaaro and ashanthi
there are enough politicians with the right policies, unfortunately they lost due to ppl not voting.

Jack Point said...

who is the religious nut?

get him out of here.

WIshva said...

Well Sittingnut all i have left to say is the people are suffering with Mahinda. According to a survey done by the intelligence 34.6% (and if I'm not mistaken 11% of the rural populace )of the sub-urban folk who voted for Mahinda now say they regret that they voted for and believe Ranil would've been a better choice. there you go... Rata perata api walata!!!