i was going to write a political post last night, about how some peaceniks, being spineless cowards, are falling over themselves in an effort to distance themselves from the amnesty international's disgusting publicity stunt aimed at sri lankan cricket team after contributing most of the false information and conspiracy theories that form its basis. fortunately cricket intervened and drew me way from such an unpleasant subject (at least until end of easter) and i ended up watching the match till early hours of today.
bangladesh ranked nine in the world trashed ( i mean trashed) south africa ranked number one ( or was until this defeat ). ashraful's excellent batting supported by others and good spin bowling helped by the conditions contributed.
the bangladeshi win threw the cricket world cup wide open. now after 10 super 8 matches ( in fact 14 if we count as we should, the group stage matches played against fellow qualifiers) or half way through the 28 match long super 8 stage, seven of the eight teams are still in contention for the four semi final berths. at the beginning of last week however things looked very different, with everyone saying that big four - australia , sri lanka, new zealand, and south africa - were assured of going through. it only took one match to show how wrong that was and that until a team gets at least five wins ( and 10 points ) it should not count on going through. four wins ( 8 points will give it a chance, but only just ). three wins (6 points) will not get them through.
it is quite unlikely that more than 2 teams ( if that ) will be tied up for the fourth semi final berth with 8 points, because likely candidates will be playing each other in the remaining matches. only way to get through is to win.
bangladesh ranked nine in the world trashed ( i mean trashed) south africa ranked number one ( or was until this defeat ). ashraful's excellent batting supported by others and good spin bowling helped by the conditions contributed.
the bangladeshi win threw the cricket world cup wide open. now after 10 super 8 matches ( in fact 14 if we count as we should, the group stage matches played against fellow qualifiers) or half way through the 28 match long super 8 stage, seven of the eight teams are still in contention for the four semi final berths. at the beginning of last week however things looked very different, with everyone saying that big four - australia , sri lanka, new zealand, and south africa - were assured of going through. it only took one match to show how wrong that was and that until a team gets at least five wins ( and 10 points ) it should not count on going through. four wins ( 8 points will give it a chance, but only just ). three wins (6 points) will not get them through.
it is quite unlikely that more than 2 teams ( if that ) will be tied up for the fourth semi final berth with 8 points, because likely candidates will be playing each other in the remaining matches. only way to get through is to win.
let us look at the standings at this half way point
australia needs to win two (or one for merely a chance) of the remaining matches against sri lanka, new zealand, england, and ireland. as far as normal probability goes they are through, though probability is no certainty. lets hope england gives them a jolt today
sri lanka has australia, new zealand, and ireland, matches remaining. they will have to win two to be sure ( at least one to have a chance). however unlike with most other teams it would take big losses to push our currently high nett run rate down significantly. so even if we win only one, we will probably get through ( we along with australians are likely to end up with a nrr of around +1 if the remaining matches are close or average wins or losses. other teams will probably end up below + 1) . but imo that is not the the way to win the world cup so we better have two wins at least.
new zealand has australia, south africa, sri lanka and ireland. they need to win two ( or one for 8 points ) they too should not have much trouble getting through ( injuries permitting) though their nett run rate though currently high ( based on the runs scored for and against and overs bowled for and against ) is much less assured than ours and has more likelihood of coming down below +1 even without big losses or wins. it is almost impossible (ireland has to win against one or the other for that to happen) that we will tie with new zealand at 8 points.
of the so called 'big four' south africa was the weakest placed in terms of points from the start, but sri lanka lost an opportunity to kick them out completely ( if we won that match they would be in a big hole now). anyway they still have to play new zealand, england, west indies. they will have to win all three to be sure (or two to have a chance). i personally would not mind them crashing out. imo they are the most boring cricket team in world cup and never deserved the number one rank ( i should write a post explaining why icc ranking system is weighted too much towards past performance and does not reflect the current form. the rating average is way too sticky). they are good at sticking to a set plan and crumbling under pressure. their captain is as unimaginative as can be. for instance he would never be able to try out anything like the sri lanka's new power play tactics.
south africa's weakness is england's (and west indies') gain. england has australia ( today), south africa, bangladesh , and west indies. they need to win four ( or at least three). their games against south africa and west indies will be crucial. i would not mind them going through in place of south africa
same goes for west indies , they however cannot get 10 points now. most they can get is 8 and for that they will have to win every one of the remaining matches against south africa, bangladesh, and england. win or get out, simple equation.
with yesterdays win bangladesh too have a slight chance.however they need to win all their remaining matches against england, ireland, and west indies to get 8 points. one can never be certain. if they do win all three there probably won't be a tie at 8 points and they will get through.
ireland will be the spoiler. any win for them will be fatal to the defeated side.
sri lanka has australia, new zealand, and ireland, matches remaining. they will have to win two to be sure ( at least one to have a chance). however unlike with most other teams it would take big losses to push our currently high nett run rate down significantly. so even if we win only one, we will probably get through ( we along with australians are likely to end up with a nrr of around +1 if the remaining matches are close or average wins or losses. other teams will probably end up below + 1) . but imo that is not the the way to win the world cup so we better have two wins at least.
new zealand has australia, south africa, sri lanka and ireland. they need to win two ( or one for 8 points ) they too should not have much trouble getting through ( injuries permitting) though their nett run rate though currently high ( based on the runs scored for and against and overs bowled for and against ) is much less assured than ours and has more likelihood of coming down below +1 even without big losses or wins. it is almost impossible (ireland has to win against one or the other for that to happen) that we will tie with new zealand at 8 points.
of the so called 'big four' south africa was the weakest placed in terms of points from the start, but sri lanka lost an opportunity to kick them out completely ( if we won that match they would be in a big hole now). anyway they still have to play new zealand, england, west indies. they will have to win all three to be sure (or two to have a chance). i personally would not mind them crashing out. imo they are the most boring cricket team in world cup and never deserved the number one rank ( i should write a post explaining why icc ranking system is weighted too much towards past performance and does not reflect the current form. the rating average is way too sticky). they are good at sticking to a set plan and crumbling under pressure. their captain is as unimaginative as can be. for instance he would never be able to try out anything like the sri lanka's new power play tactics.
south africa's weakness is england's (and west indies') gain. england has australia ( today), south africa, bangladesh , and west indies. they need to win four ( or at least three). their games against south africa and west indies will be crucial. i would not mind them going through in place of south africa
same goes for west indies , they however cannot get 10 points now. most they can get is 8 and for that they will have to win every one of the remaining matches against south africa, bangladesh, and england. win or get out, simple equation.
with yesterdays win bangladesh too have a slight chance.however they need to win all their remaining matches against england, ireland, and west indies to get 8 points. one can never be certain. if they do win all three there probably won't be a tie at 8 points and they will get through.
ireland will be the spoiler. any win for them will be fatal to the defeated side.
13 comments:
Australia will win the World Cup. Why bother watch?
Well, to be honest I think using the cricket world cup for a human rights campaign was a very creative idea.
Human Rights is the most urgent issue ; not the world cup
This is regarding comments. Majority of them concerned about amnety's comment. Suppose if the amnesty international condem the LTTE how would their comments be? any one can easily imgine. Every one who wrote comments definitely would have praised and commented saying amnesty done a marvalous job. Why such partition? The reason is, Majority of the majority beleive that government is right.Otherwise should have they voted for military solutions? There is a comment made saying that amnesty should put the pressure on public to protest against the govet.is it possible in srilanka?Thanks for DBSJ at least this time he felt to write about the disappearence and killings. usually he shows his hateness against LTTE rather than justifying the cause of the problem? His analysis never pointout how the minorities have been cheated from the indepence time and the minorities have no alternative other than fighting for thier rights. Leaving his comment, I comment on the amnesty effort as no other alternatives is possible in Srilanka as mentioned some commentators.
anon 4/12/2007 9:09 pm
in the first place you are posting on the wrong post. i have two posts about ai's disgusting campaign.
anyway,
Suppose if the amnesty international condem the LTTE how would their comments be?
in the first place we are condemning ai's disgusting tactics targeting sri lankan cricket team.
if they wanted to do some thing about human rights here they should canvass the public here instead of antagonizing them by such nauseating publicity stunts in the other side of the world.
so may be you should read first
Majority of the majority beleive that government is right.Otherwise should have they voted for military solutions
majority of sri lankans do believe that cracking down and bringing to justice the the convicted violators of rights namely ltte terrorists and its leader is the right method to improve the human rights of sri lankans. don't you ? why not?
There is a comment made saying that amnesty should put the pressure on public to protest against the govet.is it possible in srilanka?
quite possible. have you seen or read sri lankan media. there is no censorship. they are full of criticisms of government. and various types of protests are held by various ppl for various causes. so why can't ppl who believe what ai says do not hold protests ? are they afraid that nobody will attend as is the case with almost all peacenik protests? then ask why are sri lankans not attending ? bc they cannot convince anyone by absurd white van conspiracy theories without evidence. this sort of disgusting campaign will alienate the public further
Thanks for DBSJ at least this time he felt to write about the disappearence and killings. usually he shows his hateness against LTTE rather than justifying the cause of the problem?
dbs jeyaraj is ltte propagandist in canada ,( even his articles are published here without censorship ) same place you are from btw. he was against ltte long time ago and was beaten up. nowadays probably out of fear he supports the ltte and most of his sources are from ltte.
minorities have no alternative other than fighting for thier rights.
which minorities are you speaking of? all minorities other than tamils in north east have done ok in sri lanka. they are represented in parliament and government and have considerable political power and make or break governments. they have used that power to very good advantage as they should in a democracy .in case of hill country tamils enfranchising over million of new citizens. ne tamils have missed out bc of the the ltte's elimination of democratic tamil leaders who could have known how to work the democratic political system as the leaders of other minorities. this in addtion to active oppression of tamils carried out by the tigers
so if you equate ne tamils with ltte terrorists you are not aware of what is going on here. may be you read dbs jeyaraj too much.
Sorry to intrude. This is not relevant to the post. You can delete this if you want.
Please pass this around.
Irrepressible.info
Irrepressible Adj. 1) Impossible to repress or control.
Sri Lanka is lucky to have internet freedom. There are some countries that do not have this luxury. Support people in these countries and Sign Amnesty International's petition for Internet freedom here:
http://irrepressible.info/
"I do not agree with what you have to say, but I'll defend to the death your right to say it."
Voltaire
anon at 4/13/2007 8:47 am
it seems ai's disgusting tactics extend to spamming. shame
spam is unsolicited *bulk* e-mail.
The issue was about freedom of speech. Your blog is titled libertarian"...so thought it would interest you.
They have also included an interesting little widget thingy (http://irrepressible.info/addcontent)
..you can include on your website or blog to help anyone whoes content is banned to spread their info. Eg, the BBC is banned in China.
Anyway...sorry you dont like it. :-(
spam is unsolicited *bulk* e-mail.
not so. spam is unsolicited advertising.
being libertarian has nothing to do with posting spam on irrelevant threads.
if you read this blog you will find i have already posted links to such methods to bypass internet censorship in relevant posts.for instance as in this one.
your posting it here is spam. but since you failed to condemn amnesty's disgusting campaign against sri lankan cricket team you are probably temperamentally incapable of differentiating between disgusting actions and acceptable ones.
if you read this blog you will find i have already posted links to such methods to bypass internet censorship in relevant posts.for instance as in this one.
----------------------
ok...sorry...didnt see that.
Will post it there.
By the way I got that definition about spam from wikipedia. ie "spam is unsolicited bulk email"
Maybe you if you have time you can add tags? Then it will be easier to highlight points. That is an important issue...just read your post.
anon above:
since you seem to have all the time to hang around here all day long (you, who is in australia, visited this blog almost hourly yesterday, don't you sleep ?), why not answer the questions i posed to you in this post. you avoided them using lack of time as an excuse.
--
whatever the wikepedia definition.unsolicited ads are always unwelcome.
tags are in new blogger beta. i don't use it bc it still has some problems. till they fix them i will wait and not upgrade
Unfortunately no. Am in middle of a major project so in front of computer the whole day so I have the advantage of being to just click through the whole day.
I must admit after reading your answers and reactions to my posts I couldn't imagine what makes people think this way and was fascinated.
Need some R&R and mindspace now which Im sure you do too.
But I am also interested in making people aware of the issue related to freedom on the internet and the fact that you can help by including some of the banned content on your website.
I mentioned them on more than one blog not just yours.
Ok...I will go to that post and see what you have written and wrap it up for the day. Its nice and sunny outside.
Post a Comment