Thursday, June 08, 2006

meaning of sri lankan model devolution

variety of ideas have been expressed about the rather vaguely explained 'uniquely sl model of devolution' floated by mahinda buffalo at last all party conference (apc). imo it is simply buffalo's method of getting rid of the 'unitary' straitjacket that he voluntarily wore to please jvp/jhu during the election. this way he can move towards a federal solution without admitting the fact.

that he is preparing the ground for such a federal proposal is clear from his recent pronouncements. even his efforts to get jvp into the government by playing them against unp dissidents, may be intended partly to blunt jvp criticism afterwards (if they are in the government they cannot very well leave immediately afterwards and if they refuse to join he could imply he had no choice).

tackling the tigers
more importantly floating a federal solution (even one disguised as a 'sl model') in the apc will wrong foot the tigers. not only will tigers lose one of their main lame excuses for not attending talks, it will also convince satisfy co-chairs that government means peace and is building consensus in the south. tigers' choice will become even clearer; war on their own responsibility or talks where gosl may propose a devolution model as developed by apc. imo tigers will still go for the former, but they will have to contend with even more pressure to choose the latter.

btw it will be a mistake to propose any sort of draft proposal to tigers directly while attacks continue, that should be done only when attacks stop and they come to real peace talks. otherwise the choice before tigers will become blurred, and they will take the opportunity to use intensity of attacks as a negotiating tactic, or they will use the proposal as an excuse for not attending talks.

it is of course doubtful whether apc will get anywhere, but since tigers probably won't come to talks anyway, any time soon, that does not matter. even if they come (now or after a short full scale war) it is unlikely they will agree to discuss anything government proposes. talks will just drag on. we are some years away from a real practical solution and as long as ltte remains what it is, that is but right.

what is important now is to make tigers' choice as clear as possible, with the blessing of the international community.

ps. unp, instead of threatening to boycott apc on account of unp crossovers (btw unp should allow people who want to go, go. that would increase unp party discipline and ruin upfa's discipline come next election), should attend it and force buffalo to flesh out the details of 'sl model'. when details come to light they should point out it is in fact a federal solution (what they have been proposing all along) in order to split jvp from him. sooner they do it the better otherwise jvp will be maneuvered by buffalo into government and silence.

1 comment:

Keshi said...

ppl need to realise that terrorists don't know how to talk...they only know how to kill.