Friday, April 07, 2006

paramilitary disarmament, latest pussy ploy

government of sri lanka agreed to disarm the paramilitaries in the joint statement issued at the end of last round of peace talks. however it is quite clear to everyone with any commonsense that this simply cannot be carried out.

most of the paramilitary groups operate independently of government and it cannot just order them to disarm. for the most part some of them are based in areas in eastern province designated as tiger controlled in ceasefire agreement. while government should cut off any indirect military help they have been receiving and should try to influence them to lay low for now, it is quite impossible for it to force them to disarm.

in addition given the uncertain situation it would be strategically unwise to use force to disarm groups and leave them at ltte's mercy when these groups could be very useful if the war restarts.

these facts were obvious to everyone (including the ltte) even before the joint statement was issued.

so why did the government agree to it? why did ltte want it in the statement? why are they now vehemently insisting on its full implementation?

at the last round government's aim was to show to the international community that mahinda buffalo was not a warmonger. in addition given the ltte's active provocations at the time with almost daily attacks on army they had no choice but to come to some kind of agreement in order to stop ltte from restarting the war. in other words government wanted to stop ltte restarting war and was forced into an unwise statement.

what it shows clearly however is that buffalo and his advisers wanted to avoid war.

on the other hand it is clear that ltte's motivation was quite the opposite. first we have to remember that ltte, by electing the buffalo with his war mongering allies and rhetoric through the election boycott and then by provocative attacks on the army throughout december and january were aiming to put the blame for restarting the war on the government. unfortunately for them their provocations failed miserably because of the disciplined restraint shown by the army and buffalo (surprisingly in his case). instead it became clear that they will be held responsible if the war restarts. so they had to backtrack and start over again.

as such they made use of their opportunity to insert the condition for paramilitary disarmament into the joint statement. they have then gradually made it into the pivotal issue on which balance between war and peace depends. given that government cannot completely assure that paramilitaries are fully disarmed ltte can at any moment claim they are under attack by paramilitaries. this is all the easier given their talent for creating fake incidents (e.g. disappearance of 7 tro workers).

what all this make clear for those who are observant is that ltte is preparing to restart the war if they can confidently blame the government for it.

question is whether anyone other than ltte sympathizers will fall for this ploy when pussies decide to use it in earnest.

all indications are that international community seems to be fully aware of the facts and government's limitations when it comes to disarming paramilitaries.

on the other hand peacenik ngos types seem to be falling headlong in to the trap. they are presently exhorting the government to comply with the joint statement. given their usual see no evil head in clouds attitude this is not surprising. usually government can ignore them. however given that this is a question about moral high ground it may be helpful to have them on one's side.

so how can the government neutralize this issue when it cannot comply with it?

imo as i have said before buffalo should express his support for a federal solution and even put forward a draft proposal in the next round of peace talks. while it will be a complete u turn on his part his current popularity and present weakened state of the jvp/jhu after the local elections has created the ideal window.

it will make the paramilitary issue redundant and pussies will have to bide their time till they can create another excuse for war, or restart the war on their own responsibility revealing their true nature as cowardly terrorists.

9 comments:

Janapathi said...

Interesting thoughts!
No federal system will work. LTTE Terrorists will never agree to a federal system. But by doing that, we can take more time, playing on a new turf till the cracks start to re-appear. That way, we will come closer to the solution. That is non other than TIME.

Keshi said...

no idea abt any of this...I stay away from politics cos all I know is that my words wont be taken...

Keshi.

sittingnut said...

janapathi
No federal system will work. LTTE Terrorists will never agree to a federal system.
both those points are debatable.

playing for time only as you imply will not work. they are not stupid. if we offer something it must be sincere even if they refuse it.

keshi:
all I know is that my words wont be taken...
?
seriously ? why ? or what gives yo that idea ? :-(

Keshi said...

I mean Politics-wise...:)

Keshi.

Keshi said...

Mate, Subha Aluth Avuruddak Weva! :):)

Keshi.

sittingnut said...

esama weva! :-)

Keshi said...

:) hows u Sittingnut?

Keshi.

ashanthi said...

Keshi - I think you are right to stay away from this type of politics but you're often brief comments are more genuine & worthy than some labourious labouring of points, repeated like a stuck record.

So Keshi, don't give up but I too am finding politics which turns peoples lives into some sort of long drawn out cricket series where you can tell that it's the game that's going to suffer, a big turn off.

sittingnut said...

keshi:
i agree with ashanthi about your comments.
but don't stay away.