Wednesday, April 19, 2006

will tigers back down again?

will we see a repeat of what happened in january?

it's becoming almost predictable, this tiger dance, except for the last part.

  • first, ltte pussies attack the security forces in expectation of a retaliation against civilians but security forces show superhuman restraint that coalition forces in iraq have yet to learn.
  • then, ltte tries to make a mountain out of a few incidents where some ignorant idiots failed to show the same kind of restraint (in trico this time) however except for few ngo fellows nobody else fails to recognize the mole hill.
  • third, pussies try to create some non existent incident (remember those tro workers?) or even go so far as to kill one of their own fellow travelers (or let the so called paramilitaries kill them, nobody can be sure, remember joseph pararajasingham?) and then try to blame it on government, but as i said nobody can be sure who killed/disappeared whom, so this also fails.

foreign governments on the other hand have no trouble recognizing that ltte planted claymore mines kill sri lankan military personnel all over the place. on cue they condemn ltte in the strongest possible language. (remember u.s. ambassador's speech last time.) this time around australia issued a statement yesterday. expect a u.s. statement soon.

btw some peacenik ngo people in sri lanka seem blind to those claymore mines even if they explode in front of them, but they have no problem in giving credence to allegations that military stood around doing nothing while tamils were burned in trinco just because ltte says so. (nobody else has substantiated these allegations).

anyway the question is what happens next.

last time ltte backed down, will it this time? do they really care that much about international community? or do they care more about restarting the war?
that they want a war this year was clear for some time (as explained here). while december and january were not the correct time for war because of the rain, that constrain is no longer valid. only thing holding them back now is opinion of the international community. they are probably even now weighing the two options available to them.

will they risk being lumped together with al-qaeda in this era of world wide war on terror?( as will happen if they go ahead and restart war on their own full responsibility) or will they allow their already weakened fascist organization get weaker by the stagnation inherent in the current status quo? they unlike the southern herd that voted in mahinda buffalo have realized that peace is bad for them.

if they want a war this year they probably have to start one before september or so. so they still have some time left. will they wait and hope for bloodier fruit from provocations, so to speak? or will they go for it taking the full blame themselves? one cannot predict.

only prediction that can be made is that we will either have a war or a ltte weakened beyond recognition by the end of year.

anyway government should do what it is doing; show restraint and wait. if talks start, they should be more wary of being pressured into signing silly impracticable conditions like disarming the paramilitaries. ltte's attempt to make that an issue went nowhere because everybody (except silly ngo types that is) could see that it was impracticable. next time we may not be so lucky. the government should even take the initiative and propose a federal solution. that will take the wind out of any future tiger provocations.

whatever the ltte's decision, we should not lose sight of their real nature as demonstrated by their actions visible to all. we should always challenge and condemn any attempt that seems to justify their actions based on unsubstantiated facts because such justifications support tiger's drive to war.

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I condole the bomb blast in Trinco market, I am a little dissapointed that you shrug off the fact that the armed forces assisted or stood by doing nothing when Tamil people/property was destroyed by mobs. This was covered by BBC, CNN reports apart from the Tamil sites. It was clear that this is what the LTTE expected and the SLA reacted as expected by them.

Keshi said...

**whatever the ltte's decision, we should not lose sight of their real nature as demonstrated by their actions visible to all.

its never going to end...terrorists will always be terrorists - be it govt ones or the LTTE ones...

Keshi.

Jack Point said...

Before blame is assigned can the bare facts be established?

Were houses/shops burned or civilians attacked?

Was this round of violence set off by the shooting of the TNA man - Viyakumaran or Vigneshwaran or somebody?

Anonymous said...

I hear in the grapvine that those wonderful people at Channel 4 TV & Mentorn Oxford in the UK have done a documentary with the full co-operation and access of the LTTE and the lines between LTTE terrorists and Government terrorists have become too blurred and basicly peace is not possible. Why can't the government just let this go and let them get on with it in the North and North East ? The only real obstacles in my opinion are Srilankans stubborn nature and stupid pride. Don't they realise there will be all out genocide for a bit of land is it really worth that much, if the answer is yes we as a nation are already extinct.

Anonymous said...

War will stop and start until they get their bit of land..... Being in the same boat as Al Quida isn't a problem for them if the goverment don't conceed, do we really want another vietnam like war in Sri Lanka just cause El Buffallo and Co are too pigheaded......

Anonymous said...

upto now 250 of SL army have been killed starting from last year..i think tiger would not go back to war bcoz it would tarnish there names..i think there killing just to scare the SLA and the people of SL. If they goto war i think the international community will provide a stronger intervention to the problem.

ashanthi said...

To all the anon's - guys how about you get some blog id's. Sorry having been an anon anon d'non before I have encourage you to come out of the closet. At least distinguish yourselves a little otherwise it kinda looks like you're talking to yourselves... hmmm & you know there's a name for that.

S/nut - much as I enjoy reading your stuff I find this prolonged anti pussy ltte stuff a little imbalanced. An educated, intelligent man such as yourself knows that there are so many reasons as to why we are (and I totally agree with one of the previous anon comments here) all but extinct as a country, a nation, a land of hope for the future of our children and almost a part of this planet.

You know let's not talk about "what's the ltte upto" let's talk about what should the peacmakers be doing (err yeah that would be the Norwegians) to get us back on the right track.

You s/nut were the best at pulling the 10 point peace plan back together again.

Getting Tamils to kill Tamils in the East is a very old fashion trick that stupid colonial govts did in the past. You know the Zulus vs the Bantus, the Scotts vs the Irish, the Jews vs the Arabs.

Yes you are a libertarian but aren't you also concerned about the plight of people living in Sri Lanka, all of them, aren't you also deeply concerned for their welware. Can you not see how terribly they are suffering?

So we didn't have any race riots the last presidential elections in the South. Well, looks like the JHU, the army, the JVP and all the usual suspects feel a little cheated for not getting to kill & bash up some Tamils. Hey, any Tamil will do.

Next article machan, I want to read something about an olive branch...

Errr... ps - can you tell Sophist that he/she/it is a skanky ho, go on just for me :-)

ashanthi said...

Also ... to the first anon - what does condole mean. I do hope you mean condem???

ivap said...

s/nut - Have to agree, they do look intent on starting the war again.
They really are starting to look desperate. Recently AntonB was interviewed on OZ TV and I've never seen a more sad performance from an LTTE rep. He was desperately trying to get India's attention by highlighting the China/Pakistan influence in SL and some talk about jihad groups in the east.

Personally I think the LTTE 'was' at the cusp of creating a new political dynasty in the N/E had they followed through with the peace efforts. But then when do totalitarians change their stripes :)

Is it true that the government is happy to wait until the T/Nadu elections ?

Could it be that the armed forces didn't rush in because of the lessons from the IPKF days when the tigers went about causing public agitations and then baited the troops with fire from the crowd? Even in the future rushing in to quell the mob may not be prudent. Don't know, I'm no military tactition ... :)

ivap said...

Also - This recent announcement about a referendum for getting the go ahead on a federalist constitution, what do you make of it?

Chandare said...

Ashanthi,
S/nuts prolonged pussy saga is essential I think.We have seen all the peace talks end in the same fashion .He is right to be "concerned".(anyway I don't know what kind of ceasefire we have when 250 government soldiers were killed in last 4 months)

Sittingnut,
What I find amazing is the response from some LTTE supporters ,a sort of relief that thier own has been murdered by thugs ,so that LTTE could start the war,finaly!Govenment quick response was great(with or without Manmohan's prodding)

Could you remember what Kumar Ponnambalam used to tell that there won't be any 1983 in the future because LTTE is strong and Sinhalase are chicken ?I have seen same line of arguments in several online forums and have seen pro-LTTE Tamil politicians brigning out the same argument as a something positive LTTE has done.So here it goes down the crapper!Nutjobs are Nutjobs whether they are Sinhala or Tamil.Government response was good but it would have been better if they prevented several innocent Tamils from being butchered.

sittingnut said...

anon at 4/19/2006 9:09 am:
This was covered by BBC, CNN reports apart from the Tamil sites.
really? pl. provide links. :-)

It was clear that this is what the LTTE expected and the SLA reacted as expected by them.
what is clear is that ltte failed yet again to provoke the army. if you fail to see the obvious i can't help you .

keshi:
its never going to end
no i am more of a optimist . it is going to end sooner than most ppl think. ltte's latest actions show that it is much weaker than most ppl think and that it was peace that made it so. even if they chose war they cannot realistically hope to gain much, other than temporary discipline inside the group and some money. they would be forced back to table by next year or so.

jack point:
Before blame is assigned can the bare facts be established?
good idea!
Were houses/shops burned or civilians attacked?
yes. civilians of all communicates suffered. trico being a mixed town.
Was this round of violence set off by the shooting of the TNA man - ..Vigneshwaran ..?
no it was few days after that, just after a bomb went of in a market.

btw aren't you in sl?

anon at 4/19/2006 10:42 am:
i have no idea about any british documentaries.
Why can't the government just let this go and let them get on with it in the North and North East ?
to tell you the truth i ask that question all the time.
why not let the cowardly ppl there who obey the pussies to the word (at least in north ) have the fascist government they deserve. in fact i would not mind seeing ltte losing all credibility as a government. given the fact that cfa is damaging them, think what full peace will do to them. only way they will every succeed(temporarily) is if they establish a full scale fascist regime. well they wont be able to do even that.
what we need a federal solution with ltte in charge of ne province with an international peace keeping army like in bosnia. that will finish off ltte in no time. :-) and we will get there sooner than you think

anon at 4/19/2006 10:50 am
el buffalo and herd in this case are taking best available course. it's ltte that is in the back foot. as for war it's ltte that will chose the war and when we are forced into a war we have to fight. comparing the war here to vietnam just show you limited range of reference. in case you don't know we had a war here for over 20+ years.

anon at 4/19/2006 10:50 pm
i think tiger would not go back to war bcoz it would tarnish there names
well thatis the only thing holding them back. but what is not apparent is that their organization seems to be growing weaker bc of the peace. and they are fully aware of it. they have to chose: bad 'name' or weak ltte.

If they goto war i think the international community will provide a stronger intervention to the problem.
this is doubtful sl wont get anything but moral support. but ltte would certainly have problems with fund raising etc. in foreign countries than before pre 9/11

ashanthi:
I find this prolonged anti pussy ltte stuff a little imbalanced.
well the pussies current actions leaves me with no choice. :-)
there are so many reasons as to why we are ... etc.
sure. but this is about the short term situation. ppl can deal with all those reasons when peace talks really start. first we have prevent ltte from restarting the war
let's talk about what should the peacmakers be doing
they are doing the best they can. but its the principals (that be ltte and gosl) who decide. not the peace mediators.
Can you not see how terribly they are suffering?
of course i can see. what's more i am suffering myself (at least commercially) and will suffer more if war restarts. bt we cannot escape facts on the ground. we have to face them.
Next article machan, I want to read something about an olive branch...
hopefully if ltte decides to wait a little longer to restart war :-)
Errr... ps - can you tell Sophist that he/she/it is a skanky ho, go on just for me :-)
well i did try to leave a comment there but it was tagged as spam so did not appear. though i did not call him 'a skanky ho' (whatever that is). he is a idiot who imagines things as i have said before. ignore the moron.
everybody knows you are not padashow. :-)

ivap:
I've never seen a more sad performance from an LTTE rep.
nice point . their spin operations seem to be falling apart recently.
Personally I think the LTTE 'was' at the cusp of creating a new political dynasty in the N/E had they followed through with the peace efforts.
well they seem to have decided peace is bad for them. i agree with them.
Is it true that the government is happy to wait until the T/Nadu elections ?
i didn't think that has all that much relevance. though india might get more involved after the election. even that is doubtful india basically washed its hand of sl in january.at present india is doing nothing at alll. if they fail to lead sl wont follow.
Could it be that the armed forces didn't rush in because of the lessons from the IPKF days ....
no i don't think so. this using of civilians is standard guerrilla tactics. and as and when war starts lot of civilians are going to die. that is why i personally think that army should withdraw from jaffna when it start. given the fact that ltte cannot control civilians that much in trinco etc it wont be much a problem in those places any more that it would be a problem in colombo, once army clears their permanent bases in the area. sl military did clear the east in early 90's after all. pa government lost all that by trying to conquer jaffna.
This recent announcement about a referendum for getting the go ahead on a federalist constitution, what do you make of it?
this is a good idea imo if correctly done. with unp and pa ppl voting for it and jvp probably sitting on the fence this will pass with overwhelming majority even if there was another boycott in the north. it would certainly call the bluff on tiger claims about sinhala chauvinism. anyway buffalo should use his current popularity to the maximum.

chandare:
What I find amazing is the response from some LTTE supporters
well when ppl get carried away they react like that. it happens every where and to everyone.
there is no doubt that 83 is the best thing that happened to the ltte and to some of their sympathizers they have milked it to the full (which is what sinhalese and gosl deserve imo). however its almost out of milk. probability of their getting a second cow is limited. ltte have to find other ways to fight this than that. bt seem to have no idea as how to go about it

Government response was good but it would have been better if they prevented several innocent Tamils from being butchered.
it is not only tamils who got butchered, i am sure of that. but that is part of riots what is important is that government controlled it with in hours.
i don't think manmohan had much to do with government controlling the violence. it was just common sense forfied with experience. late calls from india (after they basically refused to get involved in january ) do not have that much weight anymore with buffalo imo.

Keshi said...

Sittingnut if the LTTE will be forced to back down why couldnt that be done way b4 all this mess?

btw check out my lusty line for u :)

Keshi.

Jack Point said...

Yes, am in Sri Lanka but have been a bit out of touch with the news.

I don't watch television and only glance at the local papers when I get a chance (newspaper coverage last week was sparse in anycase).

Have more or less given up on this country, but since I cannot go anywhere else, living largely in splendid isolation...

sittingnut said...

keshi:
Sittingnut if the LTTE will be forced to back down why couldnt that be done way b4 all this mess?
when they recognized they were going nowhere they started talks in 2001
but since that didn't work as they expected they are going back to war .
but they wont go anywhere this time either.

as for your comment :-)

jack point:
living largely in splendid isolation...
i wish :i can do that :-(