will tigers back down again?

will we see a repeat of what happened in january?

it's becoming almost predictable, this tiger dance, except for the last part.

• first, ltte pussies attack the security forces in expectation of a retaliation against civilians but security forces show superhuman restraint that coalition forces in iraq have yet to learn.
• then, ltte tries to make a mountain out of a few incidents where some ignorant idiots failed to show the same kind of restraint (in trico this time) however except for few ngo fellows nobody else fails to recognize the mole hill.
• third, pussies try to create some non existent incident (remember those tro workers?) or even go so far as to kill one of their own fellow travelers (or let the so called paramilitaries kill them, nobody can be sure, remember joseph pararajasingham?) and then try to blame it on government, but as i said nobody can be sure who killed/disappeared whom, so this also fails.

foreign governments on the other hand have no trouble recognizing that ltte planted claymore mines kill sri lankan military personnel all over the place. on cue they condemn ltte in the strongest possible language. (remember u.s. ambassador's speech last time.) this time around australia issued a statement yesterday. expect a u.s. statement soon.

btw some peacenik ngo people in sri lanka seem blind to those claymore mines even if they explode in front of them, but they have no problem in giving credence to allegations that military stood around doing nothing while tamils were burned in trinco just because ltte says so. (nobody else has substantiated these allegations).

anyway the question is what happens next.

last time ltte backed down, will it this time? do they really care that much about international community? or do they care more about restarting the war?
that they want a war this year was clear for some time (as explained here). while december and january were not the correct time for war because of the rain, that constrain is no longer valid. only thing holding them back now is opinion of the international community. they are probably even now weighing the two options available to them.

will they risk being lumped together with al-qaeda in this era of world wide war on terror?( as will happen if they go ahead and restart war on their own full responsibility) or will they allow their already weakened fascist organization get weaker by the stagnation inherent in the current status quo? they unlike the southern herd that voted in mahinda buffalo have realized that peace is bad for them.

if they want a war this year they probably have to start one before september or so. so they still have some time left. will they wait and hope for bloodier fruit from provocations, so to speak? or will they go for it taking the full blame themselves? one cannot predict.

only prediction that can be made is that we will either have a war or a ltte weakened beyond recognition by the end of year.

anyway government should do what it is doing; show restraint and wait. if talks start, they should be more wary of being pressured into signing silly impracticable conditions like disarming the paramilitaries. ltte's attempt to make that an issue went nowhere because everybody (except silly ngo types that is) could see that it was impracticable. next time we may not be so lucky. the government should even take the initiative and propose a federal solution. that will take the wind out of any future tiger provocations.

whatever the ltte's decision, we should not lose sight of their real nature as demonstrated by their actions visible to all. we should always challenge and condemn any attempt that seems to justify their actions based on unsubstantiated facts because such justifications support tiger's drive to war.