in my post what mahinda buffalo would do if he has any sense dated 21st november 2005, i enumerated several adverse impressions that buffalo has created on various groups of people and listed what he (if sensible) would do to get rid of those impressions. now that we have passed 100 days of his presidency, it's time to evaluate his progress and speculate on his possible future course of action.
1. give no opportunity to ltte to go back to war.
he has been fairly successful in this. by being patient and refusing to be provoked by tiger's cowardly killing of soldiers he was able to force them to talks. he has more or less ignored the jvp/jhu mutterings. he has to keep going in this route and not let the pussies find an excuse for walking away from talks and restarting the war. they are trying their best to do that by insisting on full implementation of cfa (especially with regard to disarming of paramilitaries). in order to wrong foot them buffalo should propose a federal solution and insist that peace talks deal with that too. that way when war comes (i still believe war is inevitable) government will escape the blame.
2.appoint a centrist opposed to jvp as the prime minister and if there are unp defections get some in to cabinet in prominent positions. release s.b. to encourage defections and generally make trouble for unp.
buffalo,
has appointed a nonentity pm based on seniority (effect zero),
has encouraged defections (only partially successful. he should ignore the jvp objections. jvp won't leave because of unp turncoats so he has nothing to fear on that account),
has released s.b (but too late, ranil has regained control of unp).
3.make jvp realize who is the boss immediately. give them ministries, but ones he wants, not ones they demand......
he tried to do that, jvp refused. he was right not to give in. buffalo should realize that jvp wants power without responsibility and intend to leave him when it suit them.
he must prepare for that from now on. he should make clear to jvp that if they want power they have to shoulder responsibilities of government on his terms and they are not going to get a free ride now. he has been rather soft on jvp in this regard. if he is sensible he should be tougher.
4. stick with the budget presented at the beginning of the month as much as possible...
he is doing that for the most part. however the subsides removed in that budget were reintroduced in the buffalo's budget and will soon come to haunt him.
5. cut the cabinet to 20
failed completely. cabinet includes all the governing party mps. in addition to waste this also fails in its intended purpose of keeping the loyalty of mps during an internal political coup. rewards for loyalty should not be commonplace.
6. give every thing the minorities demand that can be given. get cwc and slmc in to government...
mostly successful. with cwc contesting local government polls with the upfa in some local councils. again he should override jvp objections.
7. do not dissolve parliament.
so far so good. he should dissolve parliament only if he can get jvp to contest under upfa on his terms (these terms should include limiting their number of mps to more or less the same proportion as now). a possible (though not certain) humiliation of jvp at the local government elections will help.
on balance buffalo has been sensible and broken most of his election promises, surprisingly enough. will he continue?
1. give no opportunity to ltte to go back to war.
he has been fairly successful in this. by being patient and refusing to be provoked by tiger's cowardly killing of soldiers he was able to force them to talks. he has more or less ignored the jvp/jhu mutterings. he has to keep going in this route and not let the pussies find an excuse for walking away from talks and restarting the war. they are trying their best to do that by insisting on full implementation of cfa (especially with regard to disarming of paramilitaries). in order to wrong foot them buffalo should propose a federal solution and insist that peace talks deal with that too. that way when war comes (i still believe war is inevitable) government will escape the blame.
2.appoint a centrist opposed to jvp as the prime minister and if there are unp defections get some in to cabinet in prominent positions. release s.b. to encourage defections and generally make trouble for unp.
buffalo,
has appointed a nonentity pm based on seniority (effect zero),
has encouraged defections (only partially successful. he should ignore the jvp objections. jvp won't leave because of unp turncoats so he has nothing to fear on that account),
has released s.b (but too late, ranil has regained control of unp).
3.make jvp realize who is the boss immediately. give them ministries, but ones he wants, not ones they demand......
he tried to do that, jvp refused. he was right not to give in. buffalo should realize that jvp wants power without responsibility and intend to leave him when it suit them.
he must prepare for that from now on. he should make clear to jvp that if they want power they have to shoulder responsibilities of government on his terms and they are not going to get a free ride now. he has been rather soft on jvp in this regard. if he is sensible he should be tougher.
4. stick with the budget presented at the beginning of the month as much as possible...
he is doing that for the most part. however the subsides removed in that budget were reintroduced in the buffalo's budget and will soon come to haunt him.
5. cut the cabinet to 20
failed completely. cabinet includes all the governing party mps. in addition to waste this also fails in its intended purpose of keeping the loyalty of mps during an internal political coup. rewards for loyalty should not be commonplace.
6. give every thing the minorities demand that can be given. get cwc and slmc in to government...
mostly successful. with cwc contesting local government polls with the upfa in some local councils. again he should override jvp objections.
7. do not dissolve parliament.
so far so good. he should dissolve parliament only if he can get jvp to contest under upfa on his terms (these terms should include limiting their number of mps to more or less the same proportion as now). a possible (though not certain) humiliation of jvp at the local government elections will help.
on balance buffalo has been sensible and broken most of his election promises, surprisingly enough. will he continue?
3 comments:
we need more ppl like u Sittingnut...more educated and intelligent ppl who watch and evaluate a President's progress...and this may help the country to resolve some issues and prevent it from doing stupid mistakes...
I dunno what's really going on in SL but it sure doesnt look that good...
Keshi.
Great post, great analysis.
Its painful to witness a beautiful country with so much potential being ruined by a bunch of short-sighted politicians; we could have been flying our flag high if not for such morons.
Everyday I keep discovering that there are people who are 'awake and aware' in this country, I'm glad you are one of them. I hope one day we get to implement a governing system that's smaller, simpler and efficient in Sri Lanka.
Have a wonderful day.
Agree with your analysis. The country will probably meander along (at a Buffalo pace) PROVIDED teh foreign debt issue is a failure.
if he does succeed in raising $,1000m we have had it, we will be on the fast track to Bananaland.
As it is we are on the slow track there. I've given up hope now, just holding my nose, stopping my ears and focusing on trying to earn a living.
Post a Comment