Thursday, September 15, 2005

why knockouts are better.


i am going to argue that the present presidential election presents an unique opportunity to defeat the warmongers among us completely and in a way that will make future anti peace campaigns impotent for a very long time.

perhaps for the first time in recent history all the anti peace elements (jvp, jhu, and pro war elements in slfp etc.) have united behind a single candidate. some may see this as a strength but it is a sign of weakness. their perception of their own weakness made them unite behind mahinda rajapakse.

fact is pro peace candidates have won almost all the elections held since 1994 general election, when other issues did not interfere with the election. objection can be made that 2004 general election proved this wrong. but let us remember that election's deciding factor was not the peace process but the supposed indifference of the unf government to the suffering of rural masses. but then a further objection can be made that jhu, standing on an almost exclusively anti peace platform did very well. that may be true, but it also showed the extent of the anti peace support to be confined almost exclusively to the pseudo middle class sinhala buddhist voters living in suburbs of colombo.

now let us look at some numbers. figures taken from election department website indicate that upfa (45.6%) and jhu (6.84%) together got 52.44 % in the 2004 election. in 2001 election(where the war figured more prominently) same parties (pa-37.19%, jvp -9.10% , su - 0.56%) got 46.85%. given the disillusionment with the upfa government (mainly due to to its complete incompetence and non fulfillment of promises), declining popularity of the jvp(as evidenced by utter collapse of it protests against p-toms and privatization of education, in spite of very expensive propaganda campaigns) and the disintegration of the jhu (can the monks who remain really draw crowds like the ones who left?) total vote count for the united warmongers in the next election will be closer to the 2001 result, if not lower. 47.5% will not a president make. and as long as these people stay united and are explicit about their policies it would be hard to imagine anybody else voting for them either as first or second preference.

but a question can be asked: can the other side get over 50%? if every body else got united, sure they will. but that may be not be the case. if minority parties have any sense they will realize they have no choice but then with some people one can never quite say. but even if they are not united in the presidential election there is the second preference option. that would be enough to give ranil a victory.

such a outcome will break the back of anti peace campaign. it will show for once and for all that even with complete unity they will still be in the minority. any aspiring politician (whether out to change the world for better or to make a fortune) will soon realize that this is a dead end. it will give a post election government a free hand to continue with the peace process. that is why the peace lovers of this country should hope that ALL the warmongers are united and are explicit about their policies when they go down in defeat. nothing is more clear than a knockout.

i purposely did not consider the effect that cbk's intervention will have on this election because the above outcome will result even without her. but if the manager of the warmongers corner wants a defeat so much the better.

so its time to put on the gloves and enjoy the sound of leather cutting flesh and the salty taste of blood.

ding!

8 comments:

Talley said...

Are you Tamil or Sinhalese?

I find some of your writing rather naive but am not sure whether it is due to your ethnic background.

sittingnut said...

i hope you realize how naively racist your statement is?

btw if you really read my writings you should have no trouble in finding my 'ethnic background'. but may be you just want me to be pigeonholed into your own prejudiced notions of ethnicity.

ashanthi said...

Strike One to Sittingnut

PS. what's with the total non-capitalization???

Sweet Idiot said...

earth to 'Talley' ethnic background has nothing to do with writing...it's just an inborn talent and somehow some people are sadly not gifted with it...

It really doesn't do to make such racist comments like that...it's plain disgusting...

I'm not surpised we've got a war raging in the country...we owe to such ignorant persons!

Yaaro said...

what's everyone predicting over there?ie media, friends, and 'people'

Talley said...

sittingnut's writings are naive but understandable if he is sinhalese. as a sinhalese he thinks that the sinhalese government can actually offer something novel to the Tamils but he is sadly mistaken. he seems to think that ranil is for 'peace' when it was this same man running around trying to create a "safety net" to corner the Tigers. ranil is just another same old racist sinhalese politician. time to think outside your chauvinistic box and think about SEPARATION of the island into Sri Lanka and TAMIL EELAM. what makes you think Tamils are actually looking forward to this election?

you are nothing but a naive sinhalese idiot who thinks that the sinhalese politicians actually have something to offer. sinhala modaya they say. so true.

sittingnut said...

talley thanks for clarifying your stand.

its up to others to judge who is racist or naive or pretending to be tamil racist.

ashanthi said...

" Are you Tamil or Sinhalese?"

It was a bit like Keshi alerting Dextr to the fact that she was Sinhalese to stop his raging bullshit from infiltrating her blog... As she says - she's got enought nutters there already.

Even in Blogsphere - I'm sorry I'm going to say this - it's like - if you're Sinhala you're with us & if you're Tamil you're with them.... And of course there all variations on a theme... And then!!!! regardless of what shit follows - if you're Sinhalese you are forgiven by your fellow Sinhala bloggers...??? !!!! Truly !!!!

Now we have Talley under the guise of being Sinhalese calling himself Tamil accusing Tamils of calling themselves Sinhala!!!!!! Oh dear, Oh dear.... I despair....

This election will be run on the basis of race... It will not be run on economics, ethics or equal rights...

We are young & we want a hero. We need a hero - but we ain't going to get one...

So - here we go again we have a non-id'd blogger, starting up a racial debate, who is insulting and rude.

Oh - and paranoid!!!! So what if Sittingnut is Sinhalese? Truly - so what?

So what if he's going to vote for Ranil - so what? It is a 2 h o r s e r a c e - only one or the other will win. In between, yeah if you are a Colombo Tamil - you might just die in the process... but then again - that is part of being a Colombo Tamil! Ask Lux Kadi...

This would be because the word has been spread that Tamils are going to vote for Ranil ...

No - us Tamils are not looking forward to the election - mainly because if the Colombo Tamils go to the election booth - it's because they are too scared not to vote as opposed to because they want to vote!