its election day. only question in doubt is the is size of united people freedom alliance's majority in parliament.
imo they will probably not get 150 seats out of 225 directly, but will come close. they will certainly reach two thirds majority within months if not days, with help of small parties and defections.
if they don't get 2/3 straight away that is mainly due to modified proportional representative electoral system in place here (ppl vote for lists from parties and independent groups in 22 districts to elect 196 members of parliament and further 29 are elected through the national list). if the first past the post system prevailing in most countries (such as uk and usa) was in effect here, upfa will get something like 7/8th majority.
(btw before the next island wide election the number of mps from north and east provinces needs to be reduced, to be in line with actual population. at present, bc no census was carried out during terrorist oppression there, the seats allocated to the two provinces are the same as in 80s. population there is now much less due to exodus of ppl escaping terrorist oppression and resulting violence, as well as economic collapse. population in other provinces have increased due to the influx due to relative stability and economic growth. equal weight to all votes must be ensured in future)
should upfa get 2/3?
i do not agree with upfa's left of center ideology. yes they are not ideologues and tend to be down to earth practical ppl. that is why i am not in despair about their coming power.
there is also some justice in ppl who defeated terrorists murderers having the first go at direction of affairs during peace.
there is also this fact, there is no alternative to upfa.
two main so called alternatives are both unpalatable to me, and what is more important to most sri lankans.
united national party that has not repented its pro appeasement of terrorists policy cannot be given power. it has to publicly dump that policy and leaders who supported it, if it is ever to have chance at power.
unp leadership seems to be totally unconnected with sri lakans at large and only have ears for the that fringe of sri lankan society; the english speaking (or rather english thinking) pseudo elite in colombo with their narrow minds and tiny western liberal frames of reference. (it is not their preference for english that is wrong btw rather their whole mindset).
instead of espousing independent foreign policy its leaders have kowtowed to western leaders and even called for foreign intervention.
in addition it has not stood up for smaller government, civil liberties, economic liberalization, and free and open markets as it should. by not doing so they are setting themselves for future defeats, bc they will not be in a position to offer a coherent and credible alternatives when upfa government will falter, as it will.
to cap it, all unp candidate have reportedly (and unp general secretary is on video record) submitted undated letters of resignation from parliament to unp leader (to allow him to blackmail and control them). that is, they are willing to spit on the votes they get, to kiss ranil wickremasinghe's well used bottom. i don't think anyone who talks about good governance can vote for any unp candidate after that. but fools will, due to party loyalty and ignorance.
once terrorist jvp will not win many seats. the marxist idiots are now well on the way to obscurity and insignificance, on the same footsteps as old marxist parties. accused criminal sarath fonseka has lost his whatever appeal he once had (though he will get elected). a man who stores hundreds of thousands of dollars of unaccounted and unsourced money in his fugitive son in law's mother's safe deposit box is not a person to trust. (btw it is telling how his supporters (including online ones like now jobless indi padashow samarajiva) are completely silent on this uncontested fact. may be they were paid with some of the money for the presidential election propaganda)
anyway given the choices there will be no hesitation on most sri lankans' mind as to where to place the x today.
imo they will probably not get 150 seats out of 225 directly, but will come close. they will certainly reach two thirds majority within months if not days, with help of small parties and defections.
if they don't get 2/3 straight away that is mainly due to modified proportional representative electoral system in place here (ppl vote for lists from parties and independent groups in 22 districts to elect 196 members of parliament and further 29 are elected through the national list). if the first past the post system prevailing in most countries (such as uk and usa) was in effect here, upfa will get something like 7/8th majority.
(btw before the next island wide election the number of mps from north and east provinces needs to be reduced, to be in line with actual population. at present, bc no census was carried out during terrorist oppression there, the seats allocated to the two provinces are the same as in 80s. population there is now much less due to exodus of ppl escaping terrorist oppression and resulting violence, as well as economic collapse. population in other provinces have increased due to the influx due to relative stability and economic growth. equal weight to all votes must be ensured in future)
should upfa get 2/3?
i do not agree with upfa's left of center ideology. yes they are not ideologues and tend to be down to earth practical ppl. that is why i am not in despair about their coming power.
there is also some justice in ppl who defeated terrorists murderers having the first go at direction of affairs during peace.
there is also this fact, there is no alternative to upfa.
two main so called alternatives are both unpalatable to me, and what is more important to most sri lankans.
united national party that has not repented its pro appeasement of terrorists policy cannot be given power. it has to publicly dump that policy and leaders who supported it, if it is ever to have chance at power.
unp leadership seems to be totally unconnected with sri lakans at large and only have ears for the that fringe of sri lankan society; the english speaking (or rather english thinking) pseudo elite in colombo with their narrow minds and tiny western liberal frames of reference. (it is not their preference for english that is wrong btw rather their whole mindset).
instead of espousing independent foreign policy its leaders have kowtowed to western leaders and even called for foreign intervention.
in addition it has not stood up for smaller government, civil liberties, economic liberalization, and free and open markets as it should. by not doing so they are setting themselves for future defeats, bc they will not be in a position to offer a coherent and credible alternatives when upfa government will falter, as it will.
to cap it, all unp candidate have reportedly (and unp general secretary is on video record) submitted undated letters of resignation from parliament to unp leader (to allow him to blackmail and control them). that is, they are willing to spit on the votes they get, to kiss ranil wickremasinghe's well used bottom. i don't think anyone who talks about good governance can vote for any unp candidate after that. but fools will, due to party loyalty and ignorance.
once terrorist jvp will not win many seats. the marxist idiots are now well on the way to obscurity and insignificance, on the same footsteps as old marxist parties. accused criminal sarath fonseka has lost his whatever appeal he once had (though he will get elected). a man who stores hundreds of thousands of dollars of unaccounted and unsourced money in his fugitive son in law's mother's safe deposit box is not a person to trust. (btw it is telling how his supporters (including online ones like now jobless indi padashow samarajiva) are completely silent on this uncontested fact. may be they were paid with some of the money for the presidential election propaganda)
anyway given the choices there will be no hesitation on most sri lankans' mind as to where to place the x today.
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2 comments:
good post.
It will be in the hands of UNP to decide whether post-election time will be a revival or accelerated doom for them. But as you said, it will have to be a change at the core, not just on slogans.
I agree. A good post.
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