game is not over however.
let's be clear about what happened.
tigers wanted and probably still wants a war. that is why they helped elect buffalo and that is why they started their campaign of provocations. they expected army to retaliate against them and against civilians, in order to justify a resumption of full scale war, some time during this year. army however except for one or two incidents showed unbelievable restraint even as soldiers kept on dying. buffalo had enough sense endorse that policy. he also dropped the silly and completely useless demand to hold talks in sri lanka.
tigers did not expect this. in desperation, they even started to play the army's expected part themselves by killing their own supporters and fellow travelers. nobody was fooled however, international community especially united states, kept on condemning the ltte violence.
result: tigers agreed to talks.
we should be extremely proud of our disciplined army and buffalo should be excused for patting himself on the back as he did yesterday at some function.
does that mean we are clear of war? no, imo.
talking to reuters, jehan perera of national peace council said 'overall, i would say the war has been canceled, if no agreement had been reached, what you would have likely seen is an increase or a continuation of the violence.' others seem to expect a reduction in violence too. stock market went up by over 7% yesterday, on top of increases in the past week.
i am not sure however. i expect ltte to continue with the provocations. may be as soon as next week, once balasingham is out of the country. they will continue to say that the attacks come from ordinary tamils in government controlled areas, as they have been doing.
while they will attend the talks, they will tax the government about the strict implementation of the ceasefire agreement which requires that government disarm paramilitary groups, and provide security to tigers in government controlled areas. they will also ask something similar to p-toms be implemented immediately. all this will be done in the expectation that buffalo will refuse because he is held hostage by jvp/jhu. and so again provide them with a justification for full scale war.
will buffalo act like the army and do the unexpected? will he instead of taking an inflexible stance as required by jvp/jhu, wrong foot the ltte again by advancing a federal solution? imo he should, if he wants serve out his full six year term. we might even avoid war as a result. of course that will be bad for jvp/jhu and tigers, but who cares.
only time will tell. i personally am less skeptical than formerly about whether buffalo will show enough leadership to do this, but i am still skeptical.
ps.
imo unp should not worry too much about the defections. for one, defections will lessen whatever crisis that is inside the party. second, they will increase problems inside pa. for instance in kalutara district pa already has too many senior candidates jockeying for the limited mp slots (so much so that present prime minister had to come in through the national list). now we have mahinda samarasinghe joining in. next election there will be fun. same goes to other defectors and districts. third, since government cannot get a two thirds majority by way of defections, in spite of some boasts, unp really does not have any thing to fear. in fact they should wait until jvp stops supporting the government, as they will eventually. unp should on no account topple the government as they did in 2001. let the jvp do it, that way jvp and pa will have to contest separately in the next election.
let's be clear about what happened.
tigers wanted and probably still wants a war. that is why they helped elect buffalo and that is why they started their campaign of provocations. they expected army to retaliate against them and against civilians, in order to justify a resumption of full scale war, some time during this year. army however except for one or two incidents showed unbelievable restraint even as soldiers kept on dying. buffalo had enough sense endorse that policy. he also dropped the silly and completely useless demand to hold talks in sri lanka.
tigers did not expect this. in desperation, they even started to play the army's expected part themselves by killing their own supporters and fellow travelers. nobody was fooled however, international community especially united states, kept on condemning the ltte violence.
result: tigers agreed to talks.
we should be extremely proud of our disciplined army and buffalo should be excused for patting himself on the back as he did yesterday at some function.
does that mean we are clear of war? no, imo.
talking to reuters, jehan perera of national peace council said 'overall, i would say the war has been canceled, if no agreement had been reached, what you would have likely seen is an increase or a continuation of the violence.' others seem to expect a reduction in violence too. stock market went up by over 7% yesterday, on top of increases in the past week.
i am not sure however. i expect ltte to continue with the provocations. may be as soon as next week, once balasingham is out of the country. they will continue to say that the attacks come from ordinary tamils in government controlled areas, as they have been doing.
while they will attend the talks, they will tax the government about the strict implementation of the ceasefire agreement which requires that government disarm paramilitary groups, and provide security to tigers in government controlled areas. they will also ask something similar to p-toms be implemented immediately. all this will be done in the expectation that buffalo will refuse because he is held hostage by jvp/jhu. and so again provide them with a justification for full scale war.
will buffalo act like the army and do the unexpected? will he instead of taking an inflexible stance as required by jvp/jhu, wrong foot the ltte again by advancing a federal solution? imo he should, if he wants serve out his full six year term. we might even avoid war as a result. of course that will be bad for jvp/jhu and tigers, but who cares.
only time will tell. i personally am less skeptical than formerly about whether buffalo will show enough leadership to do this, but i am still skeptical.
ps.
imo unp should not worry too much about the defections. for one, defections will lessen whatever crisis that is inside the party. second, they will increase problems inside pa. for instance in kalutara district pa already has too many senior candidates jockeying for the limited mp slots (so much so that present prime minister had to come in through the national list). now we have mahinda samarasinghe joining in. next election there will be fun. same goes to other defectors and districts. third, since government cannot get a two thirds majority by way of defections, in spite of some boasts, unp really does not have any thing to fear. in fact they should wait until jvp stops supporting the government, as they will eventually. unp should on no account topple the government as they did in 2001. let the jvp do it, that way jvp and pa will have to contest separately in the next election.
5 comments:
The whole life of pussy is about turning tricks.He has tonnes of them up his ass and the coming battle will be dirty as usual.
I think pussy actually won the last round.
1.Got rid of a lot of opponents during non-ceasefire including Kadiragamar.
2.Karuna rebellion localized and somewhat under control.
3.A lot of institutions in Ealam are started and strengthened.
4.Also the air wing is ready now.
5.Got JHU/JVP/Mahinda faction of SLFP elected so that it will really come in handy in the future .
6.The guys he got elected went ahead and pissed off up-country tamils .which is a great recriuting ground since he is having trouble in east.It shows that( no 5) decision he made is correct
Except for minor hiccups and anger from US lead international community he is all set for the next stage.
He must be praying for mob violence in Colombo or upcountry.That's the only thing not working in his favor so far.He has put his trust on the guys he elected to pave the way for that.
perhaps the best way to handle 'paramilitaries' the way UNP handled it, 'karuna faction is an internal problem of the LTTE'
telling they are not a 'paramilitary' but your own shit, you must solve on your own.
i understand your skeptisism, but mahinda, or those who will be talking on behalf of mahinda really SHOULD be able to keep the LTTE in the round table. this can only be done by not giving them reasons to withdraw.
as for the UNP defectors..
i can perhaps agree with you on samarasinghe, but Keheliya certainly is a loss. lot of people credit kandy victories to him, i do not know if this is justified or not.
The daily mirror reported that there could be as much as 20 MPs planning to defect, this would mean loosing control of the opposition to Wimal which is not a good thing at all!
It is very rude to call the grand saviour of the Tamil nation and the the midwife of the Eelam a mere pussy. What would your mates think libbieboy?
Ou est Ashitanthi?
chandare and ~cc~
thanks for comments . interesting points we will see how this goes it is still early.
~cc~
i do not think 20 will crossover. besides opposition consist of more than unp and jvp. anyway it really does not matter, let the upfa implode, as it is sure to.
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well pussy is still a cat, not so those who wore the lion skin in election time, now they are less than nothing and naked what can one think of those who go after naked losers.
I have a question for you- you think the LTTE are not interested in the talks right? How about the goverment who is sending out a team headed by Nimal Siripala??? What kind of message does that convey to the LTTE?
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