peace talks but who will benefit?

so the government and the ltte has decided to hold direct talks ''within the next couple of weeks.'' but what about? 'reviewing' the cfa? revising the cfa ? putting a stop to all those killings? well the details are scratchy to say the least.

what prompted both parties to the table in the first place? were the ltte sat on by the international community? was cbk scared stiff of a imminent complete break down of the cfa ? one will probably not know until those norwegians write their memoirs.

it maybe a more fruitful to ask who benefits politically in the south from this?

talks certainly puts mahinda rajapakse in a bind, especially if jvp starts to oppose them and the talks cannot be spun as an attempt at being tough on the ltte. given the likelihood of negotiations dragging on without a breakthrough till the presidential election they can definitely put an end to his ambitions. in all likelihood he will try to act tough in order to put a distance between him and the negotiations and thus keep jvp from denouncing him along with the talks. but will cbk let him? and could he as pm really do that ?

does cbk benefit ? it depends on what she wants? if she wants to keep control of her party by getting rid of mahinda and becoming leader of opposition she can achieve those objectives easily, even without calling a general election. but a election will help. proportional electoral system with its bonus seats (unless the alliance can be revived) will result in a unp government. but will her party let her?

only winners i can see are ranil and the unp, if they continue to support peace unconditionally. in fact they have been able get rid of the impression that they are out and out appeasers (which resulted from their supposedly weak response to the kadiragamar killing) thanks to these talks.

what do you think?